Market Overview for Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) – 2025-09-25

• Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) declined by 1.16% over the last 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• Price action showed a bearish breakdown below the 0.01548–0.01563 consolidation range after a late surge in volume.
• Volatility expanded in the last 6 hours, with a sharp drop to 0.01525 followed by a rebound to 0.01571.
• RSI remained below 30 in the final hour, signaling oversold conditions and potential short-term reversal.
• Total volume reached 10,646,757.7 units, with turnover of $1,650,373.19, indicating heightened trading interest.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at 0.01565 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 0.01546 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, reaching a high of 0.01595 and a low of 0.01513. Total volume across 24 hours amounted to 10,646,757.7 units, with a notional turnover of $1,650,373.19, driven by a sharp selloff in the overnight session followed by a partial rebound.

Structure & Formations

TUSDC formed a descending pattern over the 24-hour period, with price breaking below a critical support level around 0.01548 after consolidating between 0.01562 and 0.01563 for much of the prior 12 hours. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 03:30 ET, confirming the breakdown. A key support at 0.01542 held through most of the session, but a brief test at 0.01513 in the early morning suggested deeper support could be vulnerable. A bullish reversal pattern emerged near the 0.01525 level, but failed to sustain a move back above 0.01548.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA (death cross) around 03:00 ET, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, price remained below the 50- and 100-day MAs, with the 200-day MA offering long-term resistance around 0.01564. The current close of 0.01546 appears to be well below the 50-day MA, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the early morning and remained bearish through the day, with a narrowing histogram reflecting fading momentum in the downward move. The RSI dropped to 28 in the final hour, suggesting TUSDC may be oversold and hinting at a potential near-term rebound. However, the RSI’s failure to cross back above 30 quickly could signal bearish exhaustion rather than a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility widened significantly in the 6–8-hour window following a consolidation phase, with price dropping to the lower band at 0.01513 before bouncing. This expansion of the bands indicates heightened uncertainty and potential for a breakout. TUSDC has since bounced to 0.01571 but remains within the upper band range, suggesting the move is still within a volatile but defined channel.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 4,670,495.5 units at 00:30 ET and again to 1,939,621.1 at 10:15 ET, confirming key price movements. However, the sharp drop to 0.01513 was accompanied by relatively low volume (125,332.0 units), suggesting a lack of conviction in the move. The subsequent rebound to 0.01571 saw volume spike to 173,374.6 units, aligning with price and offering short-term bullish confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.01563–0.01525 swing, key levels include 0.01532 (38.2%) and 0.01539 (61.8%). The price found temporary support at 0.01532 before rising to 0.01546, suggesting a possible consolidation in the 0.01539–0.01548 range ahead. Daily swings also show 0.01542 as a critical level; a break below could expose the 0.01530–0.01525 range as the next support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy evaluates a mean-reversion approach where TUSDC is entered short when the price closes below the 20-period MA and RSI drops below 30, with a stop-loss placed just above the 50-period MA and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The recent move aligns with this setup, as TUSDC closed below the 20-period MA and RSI reached oversold territory. However, the rebound to 0.01571 suggests the strategy would benefit from dynamic stop adjustments and a time-based exit after 4–6 hours. This approach could balance short-term volatility with trend-following signals, but success depends on the pair’s ability to stay below key resistance levels in the next 48 hours.