Market Overview for Theta Fuel/Bitcoin (TFUELBTC) – 2025-10-14

• Price remained range-bound between 2.3e-07 and 2.5e-07 for most of the 24-hour period.
• A modest bullish breakout attempt occurred midday but failed to sustain momentum.
• Volume surged during the 18:30–21:30 ET period but lacked directional clarity.
• No clear overbought or oversold conditions in RSI; momentum remains neutral.
• Bollinger Bands show low volatility with price lingering near the mid-band.

Theta Fuel/Bitcoin (TFUELBTC) opened at 2.4e-07 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13 and closed at the same level 24 hours later on 2025-10-14. The pair traded between 2.3e-07 (low) and 2.5e-07 (high) over the period, with a total trading volume of 1,006,950.0 and a notional turnover of 242.88 (based on TFUEL’s price in BTC).

Structure and formations suggest a tight consolidation pattern. A minor breakout to 2.5e-07 occurred between 18:30 and 21:30 ET but failed to establish momentum. Notably, the 2025-10-13 19:00 candle formed a bearish harami pattern, while the 19:15 candle formed a bullish confirmation. No strong doji or engulfing patterns were observed, but traders should monitor the 2.4e-07 level, which served as both support and resistance multiple times.

Moving averages for the 15-minute chart show the price hovering near the 20 and 50-period SMAs, indicating a lack of directional bias. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-period SMAs are closely aligned, suggesting a neutral trend and a potential inflection point ahead. Traders should watch for a clear break of the 2.5e-07 level to confirm a potential upward tilt in the short term.

MACD shows a flat histogram with the zero line as a key area of interest. RSI remains within the 50–60 range, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands have contracted for much of the day, signaling a period of low volatility. The price has remained near the mid-band, and a breakout beyond the upper or lower band would indicate a potential shift in trend. A sustained close above 2.5e-07 may trigger expansion of the bands and a new price action phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves trading off the occurrence of a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern between 2022-01-01 and 2025-10-14. This pattern, a reversal signal, typically forms after a downtrend, where the body of a large bullish candle completely "engulfs" the previous smaller bearish candle. Given the recent TFUELBTC behavior, it appears that the market is in a consolidation phase, making a Bullish Engulfing formation a potential trigger for a short-term upside breakout.

To test this strategy, we need the specific dates when a Bullish Engulfing pattern occurred for TFUELBTC within the given period. These event dates are essential for calculating the performance of a 24-hour holding strategy based on these setups. If you can provide the list of such dates, we can generate a performance analysis and visualization of the strategy, including profit/loss metrics and risk-adjusted returns.