Market Overview: THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) 24-Hour Summary

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) rallied 4.8% in 24 hours, closing near a 24-hour peak at 18.65.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 18.25–18.55 before a strong rally.
• RSI hit oversold levels early, then surged above 60, indicating renewed buying momentum.
• Volatility expanded during the rally, with volume peaking at 158k at the breakout.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction followed by a sharp expansion, signaling a breakout.

24-Hour Summary

THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 18.483 on October 4, hit a high of 19.41, a low of 18.091, and closed at 18.652 at 12:00 ET on October 5. Total trading volume across the 24-hour window was 1,285,500 units, while notional turnover reached $23.4M, showing strong participation.

The price action featured a strong reversal from oversold levels, with a sharp rally beginning around 02:45 ET and continuing through the day, breaking key resistance levels in a high-volume environment.

Structure & Formations

A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 18.25–18.55, confirming a shift in momentum. A key support level was retested at 18.25 before being rejected. Price later moved above 18.65, forming a strong base around 18.40–18.60, which now appears to be a new short-term range. A long upper shadow was seen on the candle at 18.3000, indicating rejection at 18.40.

Support/Resistance Levels (15-min chart)

Key support levels were 18.25, 18.40, and 18.50. Resistance levels were 18.65, 18.80, and 19.00. A successful close above 18.80 would suggest continuation of the rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed above the 50-period SMA during the early morning hours, forming a golden cross. This reinforced the bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA (18.55) was crossed during the rally, suggesting the pair may be entering a new uptrend phase.

MACD & RSI

The RSI surged from oversold levels (30) to a bullish reading of 65, indicating strong short-term momentum. MACD turned positive at 02:45 ET and showed a widening histogram during the rally phase, confirming strength in the move higher.

Overbought/Oversold Conditions

RSI reached a high of 65 during the rally, signaling moderate overbought conditions. However, this did not trigger a meaningful pullback, suggesting strong conviction in the uptrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility began to contract around 18.30–18.45, followed by a sharp expansion during the 02:45–04:00 ET rally. Price closed above the upper Bollinger Band during the breakout phase, indicating a strong momentum move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 158k during the 02:45–04:00 ET rally, coinciding with the breakout above 18.65. Notional turnover increased proportionally, showing no divergence between price and volume. The highest turnover occurred at the 02:45 ET and 04:30 ET candles, indicating strong accumulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 18.25 to 19.41, price reached the 61.8% level at around 18.80 during the rally. A retest of this level could determine whether the move is a continuation or a consolidation phase. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement (18.65) has now been taken out.

Forward-Looking Outlook

With RSI still in bullish territory and volume confirming the breakout, the pair may test the 18.80–19.00 range in the next 24 hours. A failure to hold above 18.65 could trigger a pullback to 18.40, where support is strong. Investors should watch for divergences in volume and RSI for early signs of exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on entering long positions on 15-minute candles that show a bullish engulfing pattern after RSI dips below 30 and volume spikes by at least 50% above the 15-period average. Stops would be placed at the low of the engulfing pattern, with targets set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The recent move aligns closely with these criteria, particularly at the 18.25–18.55 low. This suggests the strategy could have captured a large portion of the 4.8% gain had it been applied. Further testing could explore how often the pattern holds during high-volatility periods and whether tighter stops improve risk-adjusted returns.