Market Overview: THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) – 24-Hour Summary (2025-10-06)

• THENA/Turkish Lira surged 10.2% over the last 24 hours, breaking key resistance levels with strong bullish momentum.
• RSI signaled overbought territory, but price remains within upper Bollinger Band, suggesting continued upward pressure.
• Volume and turnover spiked after 19:00 ET, confirming the strength of the breakout and validating the trend continuation.
• A bearish divergence emerged between volume and price in early ET hours, hinting at potential consolidation.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest 19.0–19.3 as possible pullback levels if the rally pauses.

THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 18.515 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET, surged to a 24-hour high of 19.735, and closed at 19.2 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. Total volume traded was 2,284,958.5, with a notional turnover of approximately 43,611,343 Turkish Lira (assuming average price). Price action shows a strong breakout with growing bullish sentiment and increasing volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bullish continuation pattern after breaking above the prior day’s high of 18.949. A long-bodied candle on the 15-minute chart confirmed the breakout. Multiple bearish harami patterns appeared in the early hours of ET time, indicating hesitation before the rally. A key support level was tested at 17.8, where price bounced sharply. This level appears to hold as a psychological floor. On the daily chart, 18.5 is a key resistance-turned-support level that has now been decisively breached.

Moving Averages & Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are bullish, with price above both. The 50-period MA is sloping upward, reinforcing the trend. MACD showed a strong bullish crossover early in the 24-hour period, and the histogram remained positive. RSI reached overbought territory (above 75), but this is consistent with a strong bull trend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period MAs are aligning, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after the breakout, with price reaching the upper Bollinger Band. A prior volatility contraction around 17.8–18.2 occurred, setting the stage for the recent move. Price has remained above the 20-period moving average and within the upper half of the bands for much of the session, suggesting strong bullish momentum. A retest of the lower band could offer a potential entry point if the rally consolidates.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after the breakout above 18.949, confirming the strength of the move. The largest volume candle occurred at 06:30 ET, with a turnover of 1.64 million Turkish Lira, as price surged to 19.071. Volume declined during the consolidation phase, suggesting the trend may pause. Turnover and volume moved in tandem during the early and late ET hours, indicating healthy participation. A divergence appeared during the bearish pullbacks, which may signal weakening momentum in short-term corrections.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent 17.8–19.735 swing show 61.8% at 18.9 and 38.2% at 19.3. Price appears to have tested and rejected the 61.8% level before continuing higher. A 50% retracement at 18.77 is now acting as a support-turned-resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the prior week’s range appears to align with the 19.3 area, suggesting this level could offer resistance or support depending on market psychology.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions upon a breakout above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the nearest Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level. A take-profit target could be set at the next Fibonacci level (61.8%) or near the upper Bollinger Band. This approach would aim to capture short-term momentum while managing risk with clear, predefined levels. The recent surge aligns with this strategy, as the breakout above the MA and confirmation via volume were both observed. This could be tested over multiple 15-minute cycles to validate its consistency in both bullish and bearish environments.