Market Overview: THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) – 24-Hour Price Action and Technical Trends

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) edged higher by 0.4% in 24 hours, capped by resistance near 13.40.
• Price tested key support at 13.15–13.20, with a bearish divergence in RSI suggesting potential pullback.
• Volatility increased mid-day, with volume surging after 20:00 ET on a 15-minute chart.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed early morning before a breakout, confirming rising momentum.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 13.30 and 13.15 are critical for next directional bias.

THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at $13.016 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET and closed at $13.335 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The pair reached a high of $13.458 and a low of $12.981, with total 15-minute OHLCV data showing a 24-hour volume of 702,900.0 and a notional turnover of $9,140,621.7.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a clear bullish bias from 20:00 ET onward, with a strong engulfing pattern forming near 13.15. This was followed by a bullish breakout over 13.30 after a consolidation phase from 02:00 to 08:00 ET. A doji formed at 13.455 at 09:00 ET, signaling a potential short-term reversal. A strong bearish divergence in RSI at 05:00 ET preceded a pullback, while 13.20–13.25 acted as a firm support range during the day.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA at 07:00 ET, confirming a bullish crossover. The 50-EMA remained above the 200-EMA for most of the session, supporting the longer-term uptrend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-day EMAs were in a bullish alignment, with price above the 200-day EMA for the first time in several days.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 06:00 ET, with a positive histogram that grew until 09:00 ET before declining slightly. RSI reached overbought territory at 13.46 (73.2) at 09:15 ET, suggesting short-term exhaustion. A bearish divergence was observed between 05:00 and 08:00 ET as RSI failed to make new highs despite price rising.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted overnight as price moved within the narrowing Bollinger Bands, reaching a width of 0.03 by 00:00 ET. The breakout that followed confirmed rising momentum, with price closing near the upper band by 08:30 ET. The bands widened again after 14:00 ET as volatility returned, with price oscillating between 13.15 and 13.40 during the latter half of the day.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 13:30 ET (14,757 units) and 15:30 ET (1,707 units), aligning with price surges near 13.40 and 13.39. Notional turnover surged after 20:00 ET, with a peak at 22:15 ET ($13.195, $499.3). Price and turnover showed alignment during bullish phases but diverged slightly during the mid-morning pullback, suggesting weak conviction on the downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% retracement level of the 15-minute swing from $12.98 to $13.40 came in at $13.27, which acted as a minor support during the mid-day consolidation. The 38.2% level at $13.33 was briefly tested, with price bouncing off to retest the upper end of the Bollinger Band. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement level of the broader trend is near $13.10, which may test if the short-term correction continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions at a bullish crossover of the 20-EMA over the 50-EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss set at the recent 15-minute low and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the current swing. This aligns with today’s morning breakout and 07:00 ET crossover. However, the bearish divergence in RSI and the doji at 09:00 ET suggest a more conservative approach, potentially waiting for a retest of the 13.25–13.30 range for a stronger entry.