Market Overview: THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) declined over the last 24 hours, forming a bearish trend with notable sell-offs in the early overnight session.
• Key support tested at 18.5–18.6, with price consolidation in the 18.1–18.3 range indicating short-term stability.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum, suggesting pressure on the upside.
• Volatility expanded during the sell-off phase, while turnover remained consistent with price declines.
• The 15-minute chart reveals a potential continuation pattern, with Fibonacci levels indicating potential retracement targets.

At 12:00 ET−1 on 2025-09-23, THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 19.357, reaching a high of 20.12 and a low of 18.18 before closing at 18.255 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to 2,971,730.3, and total turnover was approximately $55.4 million.

The 15-minute candlestick pattern shows a clear bearish trend, characterized by a sharp decline beginning in the early overnight session. A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed around 20:00–21:00 ET−1, signaling increased selling pressure. Following this, a series of smaller bearish candles confirmed the downtrend. A potential key support level appears to be forming around 18.1–18.3, with price consolidating in this range after hitting the intraday low at 18.18. Resistance levels are evident at 18.5–18.6 and 18.8–18.9, where price has previously failed to break through.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both bearish, with the 20-period line pulling downward from the 50-period line, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages also confirm a bearish bias, with the short-term MA crossing below the long-term averages. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory at 25–30 during the late session, but remains below 50, suggesting continued bearish momentum. The MACD is negative, with the histogram expanding during the sell-off, reinforcing bearish signals.

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly during the sharp decline, with the price dropping below the lower band at multiple points. This volatility expansion indicates increased fear or panic selling among traders. The bands have since begun to contract slightly, suggesting a potential stabilization phase. Price is currently near the lower end of the bands, which may provide short-term support.

Volume has increased during the sell-off phase, particularly between 20:00–02:00 ET−1, confirming bearish sentiment. Notional turnover has also spiked during this time, aligning with the sharp drop in price. A divergence between price and turnover was not observed, indicating that the selling pressure was consistent with the decline in value.

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing, the price has retraced approximately 61.8% from the high of 20.12 to the low of 18.18. This suggests that the current consolidation around 18.1–18.3 is a potential retracement level. On the daily chart, a larger 61.8% retracement level is near 17.4–17.6, indicating a potential target for further downward movement if the bearish trend continues.

The current bearish momentum and key support levels suggest that THETRY may consolidate in the short term around 18.1–18.3 before either testing a new support or potentially rebounding. Traders should monitor for a breakout above 18.5 or a breakdown below 18.1, which could trigger further directional movement. As always, bearish continuation remains a high-risk scenario, and volatility can increase rapidly in crypto markets.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy outlined involves a mean-reversion approach based on Bollinger Bands and RSI signals. Specifically, it triggers a long position when price closes above the lower Bollinger Band and RSI enters oversold territory, while a short position is triggered when price closes below the upper band and RSI enters overbought. Given the recent bearish trend and RSI reaching oversold levels, a potential mean-reversion setup could form near the 18.1–18.3 consolidation range. However, as the broader trend remains bearish, such signals would require strong volume confirmation and should be used with caution. The 18.5 resistance level could act as a natural trigger for a potential short-term bounce if the strategy is applied.