Market Overview: THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) – 24-Hour Analysis

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) dropped sharply in late ET hours, forming a bearish breakdown below key support.
• Momentum turned negative with RSI falling into oversold territory and MACD showing bearish divergence.
• Volatility increased significantly during the breakdown phase, with a massive volume spike confirming the move.
• Bollinger Bands widened, signaling heightened uncertainty and increased risk of further price swings.
• Fibonacci retracement levels highlight 16.308 as a near-term support target and 17.70 as a potential resistance.

24-Hour Summary (12:00 ET-1 to 12:00 ET)

At 12:00 ET-1 on October 9, 2025, THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 17.448, reached a high of 18.058, a low of 16.029, and closed at 16.153 by 12:00 ET on October 10. The 24-hour trading window recorded a volume of 966,732.3 units and a notional turnover of approximately 15,778,193 Turkish Lira, reflecting heightened volatility and participation.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish breakdown pattern during the late ET session, breaking below key intraday support levels at 17.338 and 17.295. A long bearish candle closed the session near the daily low. This formation, combined with a large volume spike in the final candle, suggests strong bearish conviction. A doji near the close of the 24-hour period at 16.153 may indicate a short-term equilibrium point, but further confirmation is needed for a reversal signal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA and 200-EMA lines were crossed during the breakdown, suggesting the bearish momentum could persist into the next cycle.

MACD & RSI

The RSI indicator fell sharply to an oversold level, below 20, signaling a potential rebound. However, the MACD showed a bearish divergence with price as it declined while the MACD remained weak. This indicates that the bearish momentum may not yet be exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Price action broke below the lower Bollinger Band during the breakdown phase, indicating heightened volatility and bearish pressure. The widening of the bands reflects increased uncertainty and a higher probability of continued downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged significantly in the final hours, especially around 15:30–16:00 ET, confirming the breakdown. Notional turnover also spiked, showing aggressive selling pressure. The price and volume correlation supports the bearish bias, with no clear divergence detected.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 24-hour high (18.058) and low (16.029), the 61.8% level is at 16.308, which now serves as a key support target. The 38.2% retracement at 17.70 may act as a short-term resistance level if there is any pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve using the breakdown confirmation (closing below a key support level with strong volume) as an entry trigger. A stop-loss could be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 16.308, with a target at the prior swing low or the 38.2% retracement level. This setup would aim to capitalize on the bearish continuation while managing risk with a defined stop. The RSI entering oversold territory also offers a potential signal for a short-term bounce, but only if the breakout remains intact.