Market Overview for Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) — 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• XTZUSDT opened at $0.7882 and reached a high of $0.8269 during the 24-hour window.
• A sharp sell-off followed, with price closing at $0.7725 after hitting a low of $0.7613.
• Volatility expanded significantly with volume peaking at $46259.4, while turnover diverged with price action in late hours.
• Key resistance appears near $0.802–0.805, with Fibonacci levels reinforcing this zone.
• RSI shows oversold conditions below 30, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.

XTZUSDT opened at $0.7882 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.8269 and a low of $0.7613, before closing at $0.7725 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,184,835.3, with a turnover of $1,735,664.46. The pair has shown a bearish bias, marked by a sharp decline after a short-lived rally.

Structure & Formations

The price action shows multiple bearish patterns, including an evening star and a bearish engulfing pattern around 01:15–02:15 ET. Key support levels are forming at $0.770–0.772, with a prior intraday swing low at $0.7613 acting as a critical level. Resistance appears near $0.802–0.805, where the 50-period EMA and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement align.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period EMAs are both bearish, with price below both. On the daily chart, the 50 EMA is rising, but the 200 EMA is still bearish, suggesting that XTZ is in a short-term downtrend but could test the 50 EMA for a potential bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative with a bearish crossover, confirming bearish momentum. RSI has fallen below 30, signaling oversold conditions, but without a strong bullish divergence, a rebound may be limited. The RSI has not shown significant overbought readings, suggesting the sell-off is likely to continue unless there is a strong reversal in sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off, with price moving below the lower Bollinger Band. The bands are widening, reflecting increased uncertainty and potential for further consolidation or a sharp rebound. The price is currently near the 1σ level, suggesting a potential bounce if buyers step in.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish move, particularly in the early morning hours, suggesting strong selling pressure. Turnover diverged from price at 09:45–10:00 ET, with high volume but minimal price movement, indicating possible accumulation by buyers. However, the lack of follow-through in volume during the rebound suggests weak conviction in the recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from $0.8269 to $0.7613 shows key levels at $0.795 (38.2%) and $0.778 (61.8%). These levels have acted as support/resistance, with the 61.8% level currently under test at $0.7725. A break below this would likely target the $0.7613 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup, a backtest hypothesis could be constructed as follows: enter a short position when the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level with confirmation from RSI below 30 and volume expansion. A stop-loss could be placed just above the 50% level at $0.795, with a target near $0.7613. This strategy would aim to capitalize on the continuation of the bearish trend while managing risk with a clear exit threshold.