Market Overview: Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• XTZUSDT traded in a 24-hour range of $0.7563–$0.7938, closing near the upper end after forming key bullish patterns.
• Momentum showed mixed signals with RSI dipping into oversold territory and MACD indicating potential bullish divergence.
• Volatility surged in the late ET afternoon, with a high-volume rally pushing prices above key Fibonacci resistance levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened in the 15-minute chart, signaling increased price uncertainty and potential consolidation ahead.
• Turnover spiked in mid-ET, coinciding with a bullish breakout attempt, but failed to sustain gains in the following session.

Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) opened at $0.7635 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.7938, and closed at $0.7831 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. Total traded volume was 1,124,303.1, and notional turnover was approximately $886,317.20, reflecting strong participation despite mixed momentum.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period displayed a clear bullish bias following a key breakout above a descending trendline formed during early ET. A bearish engulfing pattern briefly emerged around 18:30 ET, halting the rally, but was quickly overcome by a strong bullish reversal candle at 19:15 ET. A large doji at 03:15 ET signaled indecision, while a strong bullish harami at 09:15 ET confirmed re-entry into overbought territory.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have diverged, with the 20-period MA pushing above the 50-period MA, indicating a potential short-term bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits slightly above the 200-period MA, suggesting a mildly bullish bias in the broader trend. The 100-period MA is converging with the 200-period MA, which may signal a potential flattening of the trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line around 19:00 ET and remained positive until late ET, confirming the bullish momentum of the breakout. However, the histogram began to shrink by 03:15 ET, indicating weakening bullish force. RSI dipped below 30 during the overnight hours, reaching a low of 28.3, and has since rebounded into neutral territory. The RSI divergence with price action suggests a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility on the 15-minute chart expanded significantly during the mid-ET rally, with price reaching the upper Bollinger Band on multiple occasions. Price remained above the 20-period moving average for most of the session and briefly touched the upper band before retreating. In the late ET hours, the bands began to contract, which may signal a potential breakout or continuation in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the mid-ET rally, with the most active period occurring between 18:15 ET and 19:45 ET. Notional turnover aligned with this period, showing strong buying interest. However, by late ET, volume decreased despite price moving higher, indicating possible exhaustion. Overnight volume was lower, and turnover diverged from price, suggesting limited conviction in the upward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from $0.7563 to $0.7938, price tested the 61.8% retracement level at $0.7815, and then pushed past it into overbought territory. The 78.6% level at $0.7904 was briefly tested before retreating. The 38.2% level at $0.7754 appears to be a key support zone, which may hold if the rally stalls in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions after a confirmed bullish reversal pattern (e.g., harami or hammer) on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss placed below the recent swing low and a take profit aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the current market context, this strategy appears viable as recent pattern confirmations (e.g., the 19:15 ET harami and 09:15 ET bullish harami) coincided with price action above key resistances and above the 20-period MA. The MACD divergence and RSI oversold condition also align with the hypothesis that a bounce from oversold territory could lead to a short-term rally.