Market Overview for Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) – 2025-10-11

• Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) experienced a sharp sell-off in early hours, dropping to 0.6399 before a partial recovery in the last 6 hours.

• Price closed near 0.5968, showing a 7.5% rebound from the intraday low, but momentum indicators remain bearish.

• Volatility expanded significantly during the initial drop, with turnover surging past $200,000.

• A key support level appears to have held at 0.5870-0.5900, with a possible short-term rebound underway.

• Divergence between price and volume in the final 6 hours suggests cautious optimism, but bearish pressures persist.

Over the past 24 hours, Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) traded between a high of 0.667 and a low of 0.6399. The 24-hour session closed at 0.5968 from an open of 0.6549 at 12:00 ET–1. Total trading volume amounted to 12.7 million XTZ, while notional turnover reached approximately $7.3 million.

The structure of the price action suggests strong bearish pressure during the early part of the session, with a deep selloff breaking below key support levels. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET, signaling a high probability of further downside. However, buyers re-entered the market after 22:00 ET, triggering a partial rebound that led to a bullish reversal pattern near the 0.5900 level. The formation of a hammer-like candle on 10:45 ET–11:00 ET suggests initial support is holding.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover, with the 20SMA and 50SMA both in strong downward momentum. Daily chart averages (50/100/200) remained bearish, reinforcing the expectation of continued weakness unless a strong breakout above 0.6500 is confirmed.

Momentum indicators painted a bearish picture. The RSI dipped into oversold territory during the selloff but did not trigger a sustained reversal, suggesting buyers are hesitant. The MACD remained negative for most of the session, with a weak bullish crossover forming in the last hour. This may indicate a short-term pullback could occur, but long-term bearish bias remains intact.

Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion during the selloff, with price hitting the lower band at 0.6399. The recent rebound has brought price back toward the middle band, but volatility remains elevated. The upper band is currently near 0.6100–0.6200, a key resistance zone where further weakness is likely if volume fails to confirm bullish action.

Volume and turnover spiked during the initial drop, with over $200,000 in turnover at 19:30–20:00 ET. However, volume declined during the rebound, indicating a lack of conviction in the upside. This divergence suggests the rally may be short-lived.

Fibonacci retracements from the key 0.667 high to the 0.6399 low show 0.6534 (38.2%), 0.6466 (50%), and 0.6399 (61.8%) as key levels. Price is currently near the 0.6534 level, which could offer short-term resistance before testing the 0.6466 level. On the daily chart, the 0.5784 low appears to be a key psychological floor.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI during the selloff, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry at the close of the bearish candle on 19:30 ET, with a stop-loss above the 0.6500 level and a target at 0.6000–0.5800. This setup would aim to capitalize on the continuation of bearish momentum while using key Fibonacci levels as price targets. However, the partial rebound and bullish reversal suggest adding a second filter, such as a close above the 0.6500 level, to avoid false signals. The strategy could be further refined by incorporating a volume confirmation condition, ensuring that bearish candles have higher volume than bullish ones.