Market Overview for Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN): Volatility and Momentum in a Bullish 24-Hour Window

• Price surged 1.1% in 24 hours, with a late-day breakout above 3.635.
• RSI climbed into overbought territory, suggesting short-term consolidation ahead.
• Volume spiked sharply between 09:00–12:00 ET, confirming bullish price action.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally, signaling increased volatility.
• Key 15-minute patterns included a bullish engulfing at 3.62–3.63 and a bearish doji near 3.635.

Opening Narrative

Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) opened at 3.622 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 3.642, and closed at 3.642 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 148,410 units, with notional turnover reaching 480,422 PLN.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a strong bullish reversal from 3.62–3.63 during the late evening hours, marked by a bullish engulfing pattern. A key bearish doji formed near 3.635, suggesting potential resistance. On the 15-minute chart, support levels appear at 3.62 and 3.615, while resistance is clustering around 3.635–3.64.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are closely aligned with the recent rally, supporting the upward momentum. On the daily chart, price remains above the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a sharp positive divergence late in the session, confirming the bullish breakout. RSI reached 73–75 levels, signaling overbought conditions and potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased markedly during the late morning and early afternoon, with Bollinger Bands expanding to capture the price within the upper 2σ band. The move suggests strong bullish sentiment and potential for a short-term correction if the upper band is breached or tested.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged significantly between 09:00–12:00 ET, with a notable increase in notional turnover at 3.635–3.64. This confirms the strength of the bullish breakout. Price and turnover aligned positively, reinforcing the validity of the upward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels at 3.63 and 3.64 (61.8% retracement) coincided with price consolidation and a breakout. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 3.635 acted as a support-turned-resistance, now testing as a potential price ceiling.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for USDTPLN could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern at key Fibonacci levels, such as 3.63 and 3.64. Stops could be placed just below the pattern's lows, with targets at 3.645–3.65 (61.8%–78.6%). The recent MACD divergence and volume confirmation support this approach, while the overbought RSI suggests short-term volatility could be exploited with tight risk management.