Market Overview for Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN)

• Price surged to 3.636 before consolidating in a tight range near 3.628.
• Volatility dipped in mid-session, then expanded during the late afternoon sell-off.
• Volume spiked during the 00:45–01:45 ET session, aligning with the price high.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions before a sharp reversal, suggesting possible exhaustion.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 3.632–3.626, indicating potential downward momentum.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-21, the Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) pair opened at 3.623 and reached a high of 3.636. It closed at 3.621 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, with a low of 3.608. The 24-hour volume was 229,241.0 units, and the notional turnover was PLN 761,171. The price showed strong intraday resistance near 3.632–3.636 and support at 3.620–3.614, with a bearish reversal forming near session highs.

Structure & Formations

Price tested resistance at 3.632–3.636 twice, failing to hold above on the second attempt. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 3.632–3.626, suggesting a likely reversal. A doji appeared at 3.632 around 02:15 ET, hinting at indecision. Support at 3.620–3.614 held during a sharp decline, with a second doji at 3.614 indicating potential consolidation. Fibonacci retracement levels of 61.8% (3.620) and 78.6% (3.609) were tested and respected.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA) crossed above the 50-period line mid-day, signaling a short-term bullish signal that reversed in the afternoon. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA crossed above the 200-period line during the morning hours, then reversed below by the close, indicating a mixed short-to-medium-term bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative during the early afternoon, diverging from rising prices and signaling a bearish twist. RSI peaked at 74–76 during the 01:00–03:00 ET session, then dropped sharply to 54–56, indicating overbought exhaustion and a likely pullback. A bearish divergence formed as RSI failed to exceed its prior high during the second rally.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was compressed during the overnight hours before expanding sharply in the afternoon. Prices traded within the upper band during the 00:00–02:00 ET window, then dropped below the middle band by 10:00 ET. The 2σ band at 3.636–3.614 provided a clear range during the mid-day consolidation phase, with the close near the mid-band suggesting indecision.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 00:45–01:45 ET window, coinciding with the high at 3.636 and a large bullish candle. This was followed by a sharp drop in volume as prices fell below 3.630. The largest turnover occurred in the 12:45–13:45 ET window, during the sharp sell-off to 3.611, with a volume spike of 25,864 units. No clear divergence between price and volume was observed, but the decline after the 01:45 ET high was volume-confirmed.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 38.2% retracement level at 3.627 and 61.8% at 3.620 were key turning points. The 78.6% level at 3.609 provided support during the afternoon sell-off. Price action suggested the 3.609 level could be the next critical support area, with a potential retest likely if the 3.614 level holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when RSI exceeds 70 and a bearish engulfing pattern is confirmed, with a stop-loss placed above the 20-period SMA. Targets are set at the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels. Recent price action supports this setup, as RSI exceeded 70 during the peak and a bearish engulfing pattern formed around 3.632. A retest of the 3.620–3.614 zone could offer a second short entry if volume confirms bearish momentum.