Market Overview: Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) - 24-Hour Technical Summary

Summary
• Price opened at 3.671 and closed near 3.666 after a modest pullback.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with volume surging around 22:15 and 22:45 ET.
• Momentum weakened in RSI toward oversold levels, while volume diverged from price.

Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) opened at 3.671 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.666 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. The price touched a high of 3.675 and a low of 3.663 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 108,860 PLN, with notional turnover reaching approximately PLN 382,856 (based on volume-weighted close prices). The pair exhibited moderate volatility and several bearish and consolidation patterns during the session.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure for USDTPLN reflected alternating bullish and bearish pressure. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 20:15 ET, where price opened at 3.668 and closed at 3.666 after absorbing the prior candle's high of 3.668. This was followed by a consolidation phase, indicating potential short-term indecision. A series of doji-like candles emerged between 22:45 and 04:30 ET, signaling a loss of directional momentum and increasing uncertainty in the market. A key resistance level appears near 3.672–3.673, while a dynamic support level has formed around 3.666–3.667.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained in close proximity, crossing over occasionally. This suggests a potential transition from a range-bound to a trending phase. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period MAs were broadly aligned, suggesting a relatively flat trend. The 200-period MA has been slowly rising, suggesting a longer-term bias toward higher prices if the current consolidation breaks out.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a slight bearish divergence between 20:30 and 01:00 ET, with the line dipping below the signal line during the key bearish engulfing pattern. This suggests weakening bullish momentum. The RSI approached oversold territory (below 30) by early morning on 2025-11-10, hinting at potential short-term buying interest if the price finds support around 3.666. However, the RSI did not show a strong rebound, indicating a cautious outlook for immediate reversals.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded around 22:15 and 22:45 ET when price temporarily moved outside the upper band before retreating. Later in the session, the price settled within the lower half of the bands, closer to the lower Bollinger boundary. This suggests a bearish bias and a potential test of the 3.663 support level. The narrowing of the bands earlier in the session indicated a period of consolidation, now followed by a directional break.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged at 22:15 ET and again at 22:45 ET, coinciding with the price’s sharp move lower to 3.663. This was followed by a drop in volume as the price consolidated, indicating potential exhaustion of bearish pressure. Notional turnover (volume-weighted close prices) showed a divergence from price in the final 6 hours, with turnover declining while price remained within a tight range. This could suggest a possible reversal or continuation depending on the next price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 15-minute swing from 3.663 to 3.675, the 38.2% retracement level is at approximately 3.669, and the 61.8% level at 3.666. The price has tested both levels, especially the 61.8% level, which coincided with the consolidation phase near 3.666. A break below 3.663 would test the next major Fibonacci extension level, suggesting a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern identified around 20:15 ET offers a candidate for a short-term bearish strategy. If applying this to the broader backtest hypothesis described — identifying and testing bearish engulfing patterns — it would be important to confirm the exact ticker and exit rules (e.g., close 3 days later or use stop-loss). The USDTPLN data supports the event-based backtest by providing a clear example of a bearish reversal pattern. For a period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-10, this type of pattern could yield valuable insights into the effectiveness of trend-following or counter-trend strategies. The volatility and volume behavior observed also align with typical post-pattern price reactions, making USDTPLN a relevant candidate for such a strategy.