Market Overview: Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) 24-Hour Technical Summary

Summary
• Price action showed consolidation with a late-night breakout toward higher levels.
• Volume increased steadily after 21:00 ET, confirming bullish momentum.
• Key resistance levels were tested and held, with price settling near 3.654 at close.
• RSI and MACD indicated building momentum without entering overbought territory.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, signaling increased volatility and potential trend continuation.

The Tether/Zloty pair (USDTPLN) opened at 3.648 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.654 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 3.66 and a low of 3.646 over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume was 123,607.0 PLN, and the notional turnover was estimated at 445,060.44 PLN (assuming 1 PLN turnover per tick). The price action reflected a gradual tightening of the range earlier in the day, followed by a decisive move higher starting from 21:00 ET and extending through the early morning hours.

Price consolidated between 3.646 and 3.650 during early to midday, forming a tightening range that suggested a potential breakout. The breakout came after a key bullish candle at 21:00 ET, where price surged from 3.651 to 3.652 with a large volume bar of 19,278.0 PLN. This was followed by continued consolidation above 3.651, suggesting that buyers were in control. A strong close at 3.654 near the top of the Bollinger Band indicated a potential continuation of the upward bias.

The 20-period moving average (15-minute) rose from 3.649 to 3.650 over the course of the 24-hour period, tracking the price closely. The 50-period line moved from 3.648 to 3.649, suggesting a lagging but positive trend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA lines remained stable, with no significant divergence. MACD showed a positive crossover during the late night hours, confirming a potential bullish bias. RSI moved from 53 to 57, indicating moderate momentum without entering overbought territory.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly from 3.646–3.652 to 3.650–3.658 by the end of the 24-hour period, reflecting increased volatility. Price closed near the upper band at 3.654, which may indicate a continuation of the upward trend. The 20-period Bollinger Band width increased by ~1.5%, suggesting heightened market activity and potential trend strength.

The 20-period Fibonacci retracement levels based on the recent 15-minute swing from 3.646 to 3.66 showed that the price settled near the 78.6% level at 3.654, which is a key psychological level for buyers. The 61.8% retracement was at 3.651, which was also tested and held during the night. These levels could act as support or pivot points for further consolidation or a potential pullback in the near term.

The price and volume action aligned well, with rising volumes accompanying the late-night breakout above 3.651. Notional turnover increased by approximately 15% after 21:00 ET, confirming the strength of the move. There were no significant divergences between price and volume, suggesting strong conviction in the direction of the trade. The late-night volume spikes were driven by high-impact candlesticks, particularly at 23:00 ET and 05:00 ET, indicating institutional or large-volume participation.

Backtest Hypothesis
The analysis above supports the use of candlestick patterns such as the Bullish Harami and the Doji Star as potential entry signals. These patterns were visible in the dataset, particularly around 23:00 ET and 01:00 ET, where price action showed consolidation and indecision before resuming the bullish move. A backtest strategy based on these formations could be applied to USDTPLN to assess their effectiveness in capturing short-term directional moves. The HOLD.P benchmark, if included, could help contextualize the performance relative to broader market conditions.