Market Overview: Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) – 24-Hour Analysis

• USDTPLN traded in a narrow range with a slight bearish bias before a sharp 24-hour rally after 05:30 ET.
• Price broke above a key 61.8% Fibonacci level at 3.731 and tested 3.752 as resistance.
• A massive 376,551-unit volume surge at 05:30 ET confirmed bullish momentum.
• RSI and MACD showed strong positive divergence, signaling potential overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded after 05:30 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening and price inside the upper band.

Opening Summary and Market Behavior

Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) opened on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET at 3.754 and closed the 24-hour period at 3.731, with a high of 3.758 and a low of 3.681. The total trading volume for the 24-hour window was 1,918,150, and the total turnover (notional value) was approximately 6,846,794.4 PLN. Price action showed a significant bullish reversal from 05:30 ET onward, with large candlesticks forming as the market retested prior support and resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels were observed at 3.752 and 3.758, with the latter being tested and rejected. On the downside, 3.731 acted as a strong support level, followed by 3.725 and 3.715 as potential secondary supports. Notable candlestick patterns included a bullish engulfing pattern at 05:30 ET and a morning star formation at 07:30 ET, which confirmed the reversal from bearish to bullish bias. A doji at 04:30 ET indicated indecision before the large bullish reversal.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in favor of the bulls after 05:30 ET, with the price rising above both. The daily chart showed the 50-period MA at 3.745 and the 200-period MA at 3.729, indicating that the market closed above the 50-day MA but below the 200-day MA, suggesting a short-term bullish trend but with caution required for longer-term outlooks.

MACD and RSI Divergence

The MACD showed a strong bullish crossover at 05:30 ET, followed by a rising histogram, confirming the upward thrust. RSI reached overbought territory above 70 at 06:15 ET, indicating the potential for a consolidation phase or pullback. The divergence between price and RSI, where price made new highs while RSI failed to, may hint at a short-term overextension.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly from 05:30 ET onward, reflecting increased volatility. The price closed near the upper band at 3.758, which may act as a short-term resistance. A contraction in band width earlier in the day suggested a period of consolidation, followed by a break.

Volume and Turnover Insights

Volume spiked dramatically at 05:30 ET, reaching 376,551 units, coinciding with a sharp price jump. This was followed by a secondary spike at 05:45 ET (426,607 units) and another at 06:00 ET (249,633 units), confirming the bullish momentum. Notional turnover rose in tandem, with no noticeable divergence between price and turnover, suggesting a strong market conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels were drawn on the recent 15-minute swing from 3.681 to 3.758. The 61.8% level at 3.731 acted as a strong support, and the 38.2% level at 3.718 was tested later in the day. On the daily chart, the 50% level from a prior swing is at 3.731, which has become a significant psychological level for traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering long on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a break of a key Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss just below the engulfing pattern's low. Given the current price structure, with a confirmed bullish engulfing pattern at 05:30 ET and a 61.8% Fibonacci level acting as a key support, the setup aligns well with this strategy. The 3.715 level could serve as a stop-loss, and the next target is 3.752. If this level is cleared, the next Fibonacci target at 3.758 could be in play, with the 3.770 level as a potential longer-term target.