Market Overview for Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) – 2025-11-05

• Price action shows consolidation around 3.708 with key resistance at 3.710 and support at 3.704.
• Momentum appears balanced, as RSI hovers near the 50 level with no clear overbought or oversold bias.
• Volatility remains muted, with Bollinger Bands constricting as price action clusters within a narrow range.
• Notional turnover increased steadily in the second half of the day, indicating renewed interest.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the start of the session but failed to drive a significant move.

The Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) pair opened at 3.707 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 3.716, a low of 3.699, and closed at 3.707 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. The 24-hour trading volume was approximately 580,766 units, with notional turnover totaling 2,102,739 PLN.

Price action displayed a range-bound profile throughout the session, oscillating between 3.699 and 3.716 without a clear directional bias. Key support levels were evident near 3.704 and 3.699, while resistance clustered around 3.708 and 3.710. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the early hours but lacked follow-through, suggesting a possible pause in bearish momentum.

Moving averages for the 15-minute chart showed the price consolidating just above the 20-period and slightly below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the neutral tone. On daily charts, the 50 and 200-period MAs remained close to one another, indicating no strong trend development.

MACD and RSI

The MACD line hovered near the zero line, with the histogram showing small but consistent bars, reflecting modest momentum. RSI moved within a range of 48–54, consistent with neutral conditions and no overbought or oversold readings. This suggests the market remains in a state of equilibrium, with neither buyers nor sellers asserting dominance.

The Bollinger Bands constricted in the later half of the session, indicating a potential setup for a breakout or breakdown. Price remained within the bands but did not show signs of a directional breakout. The narrow range may suggest a temporary pause before a potential move either higher or lower.

Volume was relatively consistent, with some spikes during the late evening and early morning hours. Notional turnover mirrored volume patterns, with no significant divergences between price and volume. This suggests that price action is generally supported by underlying liquidity.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the most recent 15-minute swing indicated key levels at 3.703 (38.2%), 3.706 (50%), and 3.708 (61.8%). Price action appeared to test the 61.8% retracement level several times, suggesting it may serve as a near-term resistance if the trend remains sideways.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration focuses on identifying and acting on bearish engulfing candlestick patterns. The hypothesis posits that when such patterns form, especially on high-volume candles, the market is likely to reverse to the downside in the following 24–48 hours. This could be a useful tool for short-term traders looking to capitalize on mean reversion or bearish continuation.

Given the appearance of a bearish engulfing pattern early in the session, and the subsequent consolidation below the 3.710 level, the market may be setting up for a potential test of the next support level. However, the absence of a strong follow-through and the lack of divergence in RSI suggest caution.

The forward-looking view for the next 24 hours is neutral with a slight bias towards consolidation. While the bearish engulfing pattern may provide a short-term opportunity, the lack of significant momentum and the presence of key support and resistance levels suggest the pair may remain range-bound for the time being. Investors should monitor volume and RSI for potential confirmation of a breakout.