Market Overview: Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN)

Summary
• Price opened at 18.68, touched 18.68 high and 18.56 low, closing at 18.61.
• Volume was moderate with 686,625 units traded and turnover of 12,741,493 MXN.
• A bearish breakdown followed by consolidation suggests a potential reversal pattern forming.

Opening Summary

On November 7, 2025, Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) opened at 18.68 at 12:00 ET − 1, reached a high of 18.68, a low of 18.56, and closed at 18.61 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour window, total volume amounted to 686,625 units, with a notional turnover of 12,741,493 MXN.

Structure & Formations

Price activity showed a bearish breakdown starting at 17:00 ET − 1, reaching a low of 18.56 before consolidating in a tight range from 18.60–18.62 through early morning. A potential bullish reversal pattern appears to be forming near the 18.60 level, marked by a series of narrow-range consolidation candles.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages remain flat, indicating a lack of strong directional bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages are in alignment, reflecting a neutral trend environment with no clear support or resistance from the 100- or 200-period lines.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD shows a weak positive divergence, hinting at potential momentum shift. RSI is currently at 55, indicating neutral momentum without overbought or oversold conditions. There is no significant divergence between price and RSI suggesting a continuation of the current range is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been hovering near the lower Bollinger Band for several hours, indicating a period of low volatility. A breakout above the upper band could signal a reversal, while a retest of the lower band may trigger further consolidation or a small dip.

Volume & Turnover

Trading activity increased during the bearish breakdown phase, with a notable spike in volume during the 19:15 ET − 1 candle, where 31,161 units were traded. However, during the consolidation phase, volume has decreased significantly, suggesting traders are waiting for a clear directional signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 18.68 high to 18.56 low indicate key levels at 18.61 (61.8%) and 18.60 (78.6%). Price is currently consolidating near the 61.8% level, suggesting potential resistance ahead if bulls are to regain control.

Backtest Hypothesis

To test a potential reversal strategy on USDTMXN, one could look to trigger entries on a bullish breakout above the 18.61 level, as supported by both RSI and Fibonacci retracement levels. A 1-day holding period from breakout to close the following day could be evaluated against a neutral benchmark. Given the flat moving averages and low volatility, this approach would benefit from a well-defined stop-loss and target.

Market Outlook and Risk Consideration

While the immediate technical setup suggests a potential reversal at key Fibonacci levels, a failure to break above 18.62 may lead to a retest of the 18.56 low. Investors should remain cautious as volume has not fully confirmed a bullish shift.