Market Overview for Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) – 2025-10-14

• Price dipped from 18.72 to 18.56 in 24 hours amid uneven volume distribution.
• Key support levels at 18.50–18.52 held during consolidation phases.
• Strong buying pressure emerged between 00:00–09:00 ET, propelling a 0.15 MXN surge.
• MACD and RSI show mixed momentum signals, suggesting short-term indecision.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 04:00 ET with a sharp break above 18.60.

Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) opened at 18.54 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 18.72 before closing at 18.69 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. The 24-hour range was 18.50 to 18.72, with total trading volume of 903,028 units and a notional turnover of approximately 16,378,433 MXN. The price action reflects a volatile, momentum-driven session with several key turning points.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern suggests a bullish continuation following a strong breakout above 18.60, especially in the 04:00–06:00 ET window. A key support level appears to be forming near 18.50–18.52, which was tested twice during the session and held. Between 06:00–09:00 ET, a small bullish engulfing pattern emerged as price surged from 18.57 to 18.68. A notable bearish divergence also appeared in the 13:00–16:00 ET range, with price peaking at 18.62 before a rapid decline to 18.56.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into a bullish alignment after 04:00 ET, confirming the upward thrust. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 200-period MA at the start of the session, forming a potential golden cross, although the move did not persist. The 100-period MA at 18.60 acted as dynamic support in the early hours, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory at 04:00 ET and remained bullish until 14:00 ET, after which it began to diverge from price. The RSI surged into overbought territory above 70 after 06:00 ET, indicating short-term exhaustion. It then corrected back toward 50, suggesting balanced buying and selling pressure. By the close of the session, RSI had stabilized near 60, showing no immediate signs of a top or bottom formation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 04:00 ET, pushing price to the upper band, where it remained until around 14:00 ET. A contraction occurred between 18:00–04:00 ET, followed by a breakout and a sharp widening of the bands. The price closed near the middle band, suggesting neutral momentum, though traders may watch the upper and lower bands for future signals.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 04:00–06:00 ET and 13:00–15:00 ET windows, aligning with price surges and declines, respectively. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the significance of these moves. A divergence between volume and price occurred in the 13:00–14:00 ET hour, where volume was lower despite a significant price decline, hinting at weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 18.50–18.72 swing, key retracement levels at 18.63 (38.2%) and 18.60 (61.8%) acted as pivot points during the session. Price bounced off the 61.8% level multiple times before closing near the 78.6% extension at 18.69. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest further support at 18.45 and resistance at 18.75 for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

An attempted MACD golden-cross backtest for USDTMXN encountered a data availability issue, highlighting a common challenge in tracking stablecoin pairs like Tether in traditional forex or crypto databases. The issue likely stems from the rarity of USDTMXN as a listed pair and its limited use in major trading platforms. A potential resolution would be to switch to a more commonly tracked pair such as USD/MXN (ticker: USDMXN), which maintains a stable and consistent price feed. Alternatively, confirming the correct source for USDTMXN data would allow for a meaningful MACD-based backtest. Given the recent momentum and volatility in the 24-hour window, a golden-cross strategy on a stable pair like this may offer a viable short-term signal, provided data consistency is ensured.