Market Overview for Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) – 2025-10-11

• • •

• Significant bullish breakout occurred during the 22:00–23:00 ET window, with prices surging from 18.79 to a high of 20.40, representing a sharp reversal in sentiment.
• High volatility was evident with a 24-hour range of 1.86 MXN, driven by large volume surges and divergent price swings.
• Momentum strengthened during the 22:00–00:00 ET window, with RSI pushing above 60 and closing near 19.00, indicating continued buying interest.
• Volume surged to 895,856 MXN turnover, with key volume spikes during breakout phases and post-breakout consolidation.
• A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged during the 22:00–22:15 ET timeframe, confirming the breakout and setting the stage for further upside potential.

Market Summary

The Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) pair opened at 18.55 MXN at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 18.99 MXN at 12:00 ET. During the 24-hour period, the price reached a high of 20.40 MXN and a low of 18.53 MXN, reflecting a 1.87 MXN swing. Total volume traded was 895,856 MXN, with strong buying pressure during the late-night and early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at 18.71 MXN and 18.59 MXN, while resistance levels were observed at 19.00 MXN and 19.30 MXN. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 22:00 ET, indicating a strong shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. Additionally, a doji candle appeared at 23:30 ET, suggesting indecision in the market, but was quickly resolved with a follow-through rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term bullish bias. For the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages remained aligned in a bullish configuration, supporting the continuation of the recent rally. The 100-period moving average is slowly catching up, indicating sustained momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive after 22:00 ET, with a clear bullish crossover suggesting a potential continuation of the uptrend. The signal line remained in a rising trajectory, reinforcing the momentum. The RSI crossed above 60 during the late-night session, indicating overbought conditions, but the price continued to rise, suggesting strong conviction among buyers.

The RSI subsequently pulled back slightly but remained above 50, indicating ongoing bullish momentum. A potential overbought condition may persist in the short term, but without signs of exhaustion, the trend is likely to continue.

Bollinger Bands

The price moved outside the upper Bollinger Band during the breakout from 18.79 MXN to 20.40 MXN, signaling a period of high volatility and strong bullish pressure. After the breakout, the price retracted slightly, settling within the upper band, suggesting consolidation is underway. The narrowing of the bands earlier in the session indicated low volatility, but the expansion post-breakout reflects increased market activity and direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakout phase, particularly between 22:00–22:30 ET, with notional turnover reaching 176,407 MXN and 130,595 MXN in consecutive intervals. This aligns with the price action and confirms the legitimacy of the move. A divergence between volume and price was noted during the early morning consolidation phase, where volume decreased while price held above critical support levels. This suggests a potential continuation of the trend as the market consolidates before the next move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels at 61.8% (19.21 MXN) and 78.6% (19.64 MXN) were tested during the consolidation phase. The price held above the 61.8% retracement level, indicating strong support and a likely continuation of the uptrend. For the daily chart, the 50% retracement level at 19.13 MXN was closely watched, and the price held above it, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions during confirmed bullish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the breakout candle's low and a take-profit aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The MACD and RSI would be used as secondary confirmation tools to filter out false signals. Given the current alignment of technical indicators and the recent volatility, this setup appears to offer a favorable risk-reward ratio.