Market Overview for Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) – 2025-10-03

• • •

• USDTMXN traded in a 18.39–18.54 range with bearish bias, closing at 18.46.
• Key resistance at 18.50 failed, while support held at 18.45–18.46.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with a 108,396.0 MXN turnover and mixed momentum.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 18.50, confirming downward pressure.
• MACD divergence suggests weakening momentum despite lower RSI levels.

Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) opened at 18.53 on October 2, 2025, at 12:00 ET, and traded as high as 18.54 before closing at 18.46 on October 3, 2025, at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a low of 18.39 during the session and recorded a total 24-hour volume of 1,230,216.0 and turnover of ~108,396.0 MXN. The pair shows a bearish consolidation after breaking below key psychological levels.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near 18.50, with a large-bodied candle opening at 18.51 and closing at 18.50, signaling a shift in sentiment. A doji formed around 18.46, indicating indecision at recent support. Key support levels include 18.45 and 18.39, while resistance lies at 18.50 and 18.52. A breakdown below 18.45 could trigger a retest of the 18.38–18.40 range.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the 20SMA below the 50SMA, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is below both the 100DMA and 200DMA, reinforcing the bearish trend. Price action has remained below both averages for most of the 24-hour window.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has moved into negative territory with a narrowing histogram, suggesting a possible weakening of the bearish trend. The RSI has fallen to 47, indicating moderate strength on the downside but not yet into oversold territory. A move below 38.2% Fibonacci (18.44) could trigger a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands have expanded overnight, indicating increased volatility. Price has spent much of the day near the lower band, suggesting bearish momentum. A break above the midline of the bands would indicate a potential reversal, but such a move is unlikely without a volume confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after the bearish engulfing pattern formed, confirming a key breakdown. The highest notional turnover occurred during the 20:00–22:00 ET window. A divergence between volume and price action is not currently observed, but caution is advised should the price continue to fall without a volume increase.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing (18.39–18.54) shows key levels at 18.49 (38.2%) and 18.46 (61.8%). The 61.8% level currently acts as dynamic support. On the daily chart, the key Fibonacci levels from the larger downtrend lie at 18.40, 18.35, and 18.30.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a mean-reversion strategy based on the 61.8% Fibonacci level and a bearish engulfing pattern could offer a short-term trade setup. A long entry at 18.46 with a stop below 18.44 and a target at 18.50 aligns with the Fibonacci retracement and key resistance. Given the current bearish bias, this trade may be more suitable for a short bias with a tight stop or for a short-term countertrend position.