Market Overview: Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) – October 12, 2025, 24-Hour Analysis

• USDTUAH traded in a tight range with bearish momentum in the 24-hour period.
• Price broke key support at 43.05, triggering a downward shift in sentiment.
• Volume spiked sharply during the 05:00–05:15 ET window, aligning with the lowest price of 42.72.
• RSI and MACD indicated overbought conditions turned oversold late in the session.
• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp contraction after 04:45 ET, followed by a breakout.

Opening and Price Action

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 43.1 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 42.96 on October 12 at the same time. The pair reached a high of 43.29 and a low of 42.72 within the 24-hour window, reflecting a volatile 1.32% range. Total volume amounted to 181,407.0, with notional turnover calculated at approximately 7,752,433.4 Hryvnias.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bearish breakdown from 43.05, a prior key support, as price closed below it after a prolonged bearish engulfing pattern around 05:00 ET. A doji appeared at 03:30 ET, hinting at indecision prior to the sharp decline. Price failed to retest the 43.15 resistance level multiple times, confirming a shift in sentiment to the downside. The 42.95-42.96 zone appears as the next critical support.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward throughout the session, indicating continued bearish pressure. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, forming a bearish death cross. Bollinger Bands constricted significantly between 04:30 and 05:00 ET, followed by a decisive breakout to the downside. Price closed at 42.96, comfortably below the 20-period MA, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias.

Momentum and Indicators

RSI hovered near overbought levels early in the session but dropped sharply into oversold territory by 05:15 ET, confirming the breakdown. MACD moved into negative territory with a bearish crossover, and the histogram showed consistent bearish divergence. These indicators suggest exhaustion in the bullish side and potential for further downside in the near term.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked to 23,827 at 05:00 ET as price broke down to 42.72, the lowest in the 24-hour window. The large bearish candle at that hour was accompanied by a 43.05–42.72 drop, indicating heavy selling pressure. Turnover increased proportionally with volume, showing no divergence between price and turnover, which supports the validity of the breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the 43.05–42.72 swing as a reference, key Fibonacci levels appear at 42.91 (61.8%) and 42.95 (38.2%), both of which coincided with recent consolidation. A potential rebound from 42.95 could see price retesting 43.05. However, given the breakdown and bearish momentum, a test of the 42.75 level seems more probable.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves a 15-minute breakout entry following a consolidation phase within a 1.5% range, confirmed by a close above resistance or below support. Entries are triggered on volume spikes that exceed the average 20-period volume by 50%. Stop-loss is set at the opposite end of the consolidation range, and take-profit is placed at the nearest Fibonacci extension level. Given today’s price action and volume pattern at 05:00 ET, the conditions aligned with the strategy, validating a short entry. However, the success of this approach will depend on consistent volatility and well-defined consolidation patterns in future sessions.