Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH): Consolidation with Mixed Momentum on 2025-09-13

• Price action showed consolidation around 42.77–42.82 after a brief morning dip to 42.66.
• Momentum remained weak, with RSI hovering near 50 and no clear overbought/oversold signals.
• Volatility expanded in early trading but has since subsided, with Bollinger Bands narrowing.
• Turnover was uneven, with spikes in volume during sharp intraday dips and rebounds.
• A bearish 15-minute engulfing pattern formed briefly in early afternoon but failed to hold.

The Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) pair opened at 42.79 on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 42.82, and a low of 42.66 before closing at 42.75 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, total volume was approximately 49,676 Hryvnia, and notional turnover reached around 2,113,139 Hryvnia, reflecting uneven but active trading in volatile hours.

Structure & Formations

The price of USDTUAH formed a choppy, range-bound pattern during the 24-hour window, with key support emerging near 42.70–42.75 and resistance consolidating at 42.80–42.82. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on 2025-09-12 at 19:30 ET, where the price gapped up and then closed significantly lower. However, this pattern failed to hold, as buyers retook control shortly afterward. A potential bullish harami was visible in the early hours of 2025-09-13, indicating indecision and possible reversal from the morning dip.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, both hovering around 42.77–42.80. The 20-period MA showed a slight downward bias during the morning dip but began to flatten out by midday. For the daily timeframe, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages were near 42.75–42.78, with the price currently near the 50-period level, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish bias in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The 12-period MACD histogram fluctuated around zero, with no clear divergence from the price action, signaling a lack of decisive momentum. RSI values remained clustered around the 50–55 range for most of the session, indicating a sideways or neutral phase with no overbought or oversold conditions emerging. A brief RSI dip into the 48–49 zone occurred during the 10:30 ET 15-minute period, but it did not trigger a strong price reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands reflected a volatile start to the session, with a sharp expansion in the morning dip. By midday, the bands had begun to contract, signaling potential consolidation. The price remained within the bands for the majority of the period, occasionally touching the upper band during short-lived bullish spikes and the lower band during dips. A contraction in the bands could hint at the possibility of a breakout or a continuation of the range in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover were most pronounced during the sharp intraday moves, especially in the 7:45 ET and 10:30 ET 15-minute periods. A significant volume spike of 2,750 Hryvnia occurred at 7:45 ET as the price dropped to 42.67, followed by a rebound. Turnover spiked at similar times, aligning with the price swings. A divergence in volume and price was visible in the 12:15 ET candle, where volume was high but the price failed to follow through on a bullish breakout attempt.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the morning dip from 42.82 to 42.66, key levels emerged at 42.75 (61.8%) and 42.79 (38.2%). The price showed hesitation at the 61.8% level during the 10:30–10:45 ET period but ultimately broke through it, suggesting the level may have provided temporary support rather than a long-term anchor. The 38.2% retracement level at 42.79 acted as a resistance during a late morning rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20-period moving average as a dynamic support/resistance level and entering trades when the price breaks above or below it with increasing volume. Given the current price hovering near the 50-period MA and the recent bearish engulfing pattern, a short-term bearish setup might be valid if the price breaks below 42.75 with a sharp increase in volume. Conversely, a bullish breakout above 42.82 with confirmation via RSI divergence and strong volume could serve as a buy signal. Such a strategy would benefit from a trailing stop-loss at the nearest Fibonacci level or a recent swing low.