Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH)

• Price action showed consolidation below 43.18 with a low near 42.55 following a sharp dip after midnight.
• Volatility expanded after 4:15 AM ET, with a large bearish candle forming a potential breakdown pattern.
• RSI and MACD data were unavailable, but volume surged during the early morning sell-off.
• Bollinger Band contraction occurred around 43.14 before the price broke downward, signaling potential trend acceleration.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 42.97 (61.8%) and 42.55 (100%) were tested during the morning decline.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 43.20 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 43.05 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 43.24 and a low of 42.55 over the 24-hour period. The pair experienced a total volume of 76,419.0 and a notional turnover of 3,272,572.35 UAH. The price consolidated in the early evening before a sharp sell-off after 4:15 AM ET.

The 15-minute chart revealed a bearish engulfing pattern around 4:15 AM ET, with a candle opening at 42.99 and closing at 42.55 after a high of 43.04. This suggests increased bearish sentiment. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned around 43.12–43.14, indicating a potential neutral zone before the price dropped sharply. On the daily timeframe, the 50-day moving average was above the 200-day moving average, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias, though this was not reflected in the recent 24-hour action.

Bollinger Bands showed a narrow contraction around 43.14–43.16 before the price broke below the lower band at 42.55. This expansion in volatility could signal the start of a new trend or a continuation of the recent bearish momentum. Notably, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 42.97 was tested but failed to hold, with the price falling further to 42.55. A key support level appears to be forming around 42.55, with potential resistance at 43.04 and 43.14 based on recent highs and consolidation points.

Looking ahead, the immediate 24-hour outlook suggests that the price could test the 42.55 support level for confirmation or rejection. A close above 43.14 may indicate a rebound, while a break below 42.55 could lead to a steeper decline toward prior support levels. Investors should monitor volume and price divergence for confirmation of trend strength.

A potential bearish continuation pattern has emerged, particularly around the 4:15 AM ET candle that marked the beginning of the sharp decline. If the 42.55 support holds, it could serve as a base for a potential bounce. However, a break below this level would signal increased bearish momentum and a possible extension to the next support level at 42.45. The 43.04–43.14 zone remains a key area to watch for potential short-term resistance.

A backtest strategy centered on detecting MACD Death-Cross events since 2022 is proposed to evaluate the performance of USDTUAH during bearish momentum shifts. Given the current data constraint—where the symbol “USDTUAH” is not recognized by the data vendor—confirmation of the correct symbol (e.g., “USDT/UAH”, “USDTUAH=X”, or exchange-specific identifier) is required. Once validated, a backtest can be executed to analyze how the pair historically reacted to MACD Death-Cross events. This approach would provide actionable insight into potential entry and exit points under similar bearish conditions.