Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH)

• Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) edged higher over 24 hours, closing near intraday highs with moderate volume.
• A 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern formed after a key support at 43.36 was tested.
• Volatility increased in the final hours, with price testing upper Bollinger Bands and RSI trending upward.
• Turnover confirmed price strength, showing no divergence despite high-volume bearish reversal attempts.

The Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) pair opened at 43.37 on 2025-10-27 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 43.56, and a low of 43.26, closing at 43.52 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 53,421.0 Hryvnia, with a notional turnover of $2,322,267 (approx. based on Hryvnia value). Price action showed a modest upward bias, particularly in the final 6 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price tested a key support level at 43.36 multiple times, with a 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern forming around 06:00 ET after a sharp correction. A doji formed at 02:45 ET during consolidation, hinting at indecision before the final upward move. Resistance appears to now reside around 43.43–43.45, where the price found initial resistance after a mid-session rally.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (43.38) crossed above the 50-period MA (43.40), suggesting a mild bullish bias. RSI rose from 45 to 58 during the last 3 hours, indicating strengthening momentum. MACD showed a positive divergence with price, especially in the final 90 minutes, suggesting a possible continuation of the upward move.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility expanded late in the session, with price briefly touching the upper Bollinger Band at 43.56. This suggests a potential overbought condition and a pullback risk. A contraction in the band width had occurred between 02:00 and 06:00 ET, often a precursor to a breakout — in this case, a bullish one.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 43.41–43.43 in the final 45 minutes, with a large 6,457.0 Hryvnia block pushing price to the session high. Notional turnover increased by ~14% in the last 3 hours, aligning with the price action and confirming the upward bias. No bearish divergence was observed between price and turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 43.42 and a 61.8% level at 43.46 provided initial resistance during the rally. The final price closed near the 61.8% level, suggesting potential consolidation or a test of the 78.6% level at 43.50 in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy employed a “hold for 3 days” rule, using close prices to determine entry and exit points. Assuming the recent bullish momentum continues, a similar approach could be adapted for shorter timeframes, such as holding for 2–3 15-minute candles after a confirmed bullish reversal pattern. The recent engulfing pattern at 43.36–43.43 could serve as a potential backtest entry trigger. However, the absence of a stop-loss or take-profit rule in the original strategy introduces higher risk, particularly in volatile conditions like those observed on 2025-10-28.