Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH)

• Price action showed a strong bearish trend with a 1.8% decline from open to close
• Volatility expanded as price dipped to 42.25, breaking key support zones
• High volume confirmed selling pressure, with a 42.32-42.34 countermove indicating potential short-term resistance
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with overbought levels reversed sharply
• Turnover and volume aligned with price movements, suggesting no divergence in sentiment

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.42 on October 2, 2025, and traded as high as 42.51 before closing at 42.29 at 12:00 ET on October 3, 2025. The 24-hour session recorded a total volume of 63,576 Hryvnia and a notional turnover of approximately $1,492,185. The price action revealed a bearish bias with increasing volatility in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern shows a strong bearish bias, with several long-bodied bars and short wicks indicating decisive selling pressure. A key support zone emerged around 42.25, where price found temporary stability. The breakdown from this level confirmed a bearish continuation. A potential resistance cluster formed between 42.32 and 42.34, with several bullish attempts failing to break through this range. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the session high, signaling a potential reversal in momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-period MA was last touched at 42.44, which may now act as a psychological resistance. For daily traders, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are likely positioned further above the current levels, indicating a bearish bias over the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a clear bearish divergence, with the line trending downward while the price briefly recovered at 42.34. The RSI dipped into oversold territory (30s) around 42.25, signaling potential short-term exhaustion among sellers. However, the RSI failed to rebound meaningfully, which suggests a lack of strong buying interest.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained within the Bollinger Band range, but with the lower band acting as a critical support. The width of the bands expanded as volatility increased in the latter half of the session. Price approached the lower band at 42.25 before bouncing back slightly, indicating a possible area of interest for short-term buyers.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the session’s low point, confirming the breakdown of key support levels. The notional turnover mirrored this pattern, aligning with the price decline and suggesting no divergence in sentiment. The final 15-minute bar showed a modest volume increase and a slight price rebound to 42.29, indicating potential near-term consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of 42.51 to the low of 42.25 showed that the 42.32 level corresponded to the 61.8% retracement level, reinforcing its importance as a potential short-term resistance. The 38.2% retracement at 42.37 also aligned with a minor bounce zone. Traders should monitor the 42.30–42.32 range for potential continuation of the bearish trend or a reversal attempt.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the technical indicators used—including RSI, MACD, and moving averages—a viable backtesting strategy would involve entering short positions when RSI dips below 30 and the MACD histogram shows bearish momentum, particularly when prices are below the 50-period moving average. Stop-loss orders could be placed slightly above key resistance levels such as 42.32–42.34, while take-profit targets might align with Fibonacci levels at 42.25 (61.8% support) and 42.23 (38.2% support). This approach assumes a continuation of the bearish bias and is best suited for short-term traders with risk management strategies in place.