Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH)

• USDTUAH tested resistance at 42.89–42.90, forming bullish consolidation.
• A sharp drop to 42.75 early morning triggered a rebound with strong volume.
• MACD and RSI signaled overbought conditions near highs but reversed downward.
• Volatility expanded during the early morning selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• Price action suggests a potential rangebound pattern around 42.84–42.89.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.81 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 42.83 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of 42.90 and a low of 42.71. Total trading volume was 65,890.00 Hryvnia, with a notional turnover of $1,549.82.

The price moved in a bullish consolidation pattern late in the day, forming a potential ascending triangle with a resistance at 42.89–42.90. An early morning selloff broke support at 42.75, triggering a rebound with a large volume spike. This suggests a possible continuation pattern or a short-term reversal.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a bearish breakdown to 42.75, followed by a strong reversal back toward 42.89. Notable patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern during the rebound and a doji near the 42.87 level, signaling indecision. Key support levels are at 42.84–42.85 and 42.75–42.76, while resistance holds at 42.89–42.90 and 42.93–42.94.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are converging toward 42.84–42.85, indicating a potential support cluster. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA are aligned at 42.83–42.85, suggesting a neutral bias with a slight bullish edge.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after a bullish crossover near 42.90, indicating waning momentum. The RSI reached overbought territory near 42.90 but declined back into neutral to slightly oversold levels, suggesting potential for a bounce. This divergence could signal a short-term reversal in the near future.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning selloff, indicating rising volatility. Price has since bounced off the lower band and is now oscillating near the middle band. This suggests a possible return to tighter consolidation or a continuation of the current range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning drop (42.71–42.75) and during the rebound to 42.89, confirming the strength of both the breakdown and the bounce. However, a divergence in turnover—higher volume with lower price—was observed after 2025-09-26 05:00 ET, hinting at potential exhaustion of the current bullish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fib levels from the 42.71 to 42.90 swing show key retracement levels at 38.2% (42.82) and 61.8% (42.85). Price has tested both levels and appears to be forming a base within this range. A break above 42.90 or below 42.75 would signal a more directional move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a range-trading approach between the 42.84–42.89 consolidation. Entries could be placed at the lower bound (42.84–42.85) with a stop just below 42.82 and a target at 42.89. Alternatively, bearish entries could be taken on a breakdown below 42.84, with a stop above 42.89 and a target near 42.75. This strategy would align with the observed MACD divergence and RSI overbought conditions, offering a data-driven approach to short-term volatility.