Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH)

• Price drifted sideways with limited volatility in a tight range near 42.67.
• A large-volume dip below 42.65 early evening ET failed to sustain a move lower.
• RSI hovered near mid-range, suggesting a lack of decisive momentum in either direction.
• Bollinger Bands tightened during the overnight session, signaling potential for a breakout.
• Turnover and volume remained moderate, with no divergence between price and volume.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.71 on 2025-09-13 12:00 ET, reached a high of 42.77, and closed at 42.67 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14. The price remained in a narrow consolidation band for most of the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to 44,191.0, while notional turnover was 1,857,052.0 (volume-weighted price).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a series of tight-range consolidations and small-volume retracements, with a brief bearish breakout below 42.65 in the late evening hours failing to sustain. Key support appears to be forming around 42.65–42.67, while resistance was tested around 42.70–42.73. A few small bearish engulfing patterns appeared in the late-night session, followed by indecisive doji, signaling hesitation among buyers and sellers. The price action suggests that the market may be waiting for a catalyst to break out of its current range.

Moving Averages and Indicators

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are closely aligned near the middle of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a lack of strong directional bias. The 50-period MA on the daily chart currently resides above the 200-period MA, suggesting a slightly bullish bias in the longer term. The RSI remains in the mid-range between 48 and 54, indicating no overbought or oversold conditions. The MACD histogram shows weak momentum, with a small bearish divergence near the 42.65 support level.

Volume and Turnover

The volume profile shows a sharp spike of 3,735 Hryvnia at 21:15 ET, coinciding with a price drop to 42.67, followed by a consolidation phase with reduced trading activity. The notional turnover remained stable in the 42.65–42.70 range, with no significant price-volume divergence observed. The overnight session saw a significant drop in trading activity, which could indicate reduced liquidity and a potential setup for a breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 42.77 (high) to 42.65 (low), the price has retested the 61.8% retracement level (42.69) multiple times. A breakdown below 42.65 would target the 78.6% retracement level, while a rebound above 42.72 could see a retest of the 50% level at 42.71. In the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the 42.77–42.65 move aligns closely with the 42.71 level, which has seen repeated rejections and could serve as a short-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this pair could focus on identifying breakout setups around key Fibonacci levels. For example, a long entry could be triggered when price closes above the 42.72 (50% retracement level) with a stop just below 42.65 and a target at 42.77 (previous high). Conversely, a short entry might be initiated upon a close below 42.65 with a stop above 42.72 and a target at 42.58–42.60. The recent volume behavior and RSI neutrality suggest that such a strategy may benefit from using volume confirmation and MACD divergence to refine entries. A trailing stop could be used as the price breaks out of the consolidation.