Market Overview: Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) 24-Hour Price Action and Technical Signals

• Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) closed near a 24-hour low, showing bearish bias amid moderate volume.
• Price consolidated around 42.67–42.69, with no clear breakout above or below this range.
• Volatility remained low, as shown by narrow Bollinger Bands, with price staying close to the mean.
• RSI and MACD showed weak momentum, indicating low conviction in price direction.
• Turnover increased slightly in the latter half of the day, but volume remained below 24-hour average.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.66 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 42.72, touched a low of 42.53, and closed at 42.64 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 42,803.0 units, while turnover amounted to 1,821,126.85 UAH, reflecting moderate trading activity over the past 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data revealed a range-bound profile between 42.64 and 42.72, with a key support at 42.64 and resistance at 42.71. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 15:45 ET, followed by a doji at 04:30 ET, signaling indecision among traders. These structures suggest potential for a breakout or a continuation of consolidation, but the absence of strong volume confirmation suggests caution in interpreting these signals as decisive.

Moving Averages

Short-term averages like the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a slight downward bias, with the price hovering slightly below the 20SMA. This indicates bearish control, though not strongly pronounced. On the daily chart, 50- and 100-period moving averages aligned closely around 42.67–42.69, reinforcing the significance of this level as a key psychological and technical pivot.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory with a slow histogram, indicating waning bearish momentum. RSI oscillated within the 40–50 range throughout the day, suggesting a neutral to slightly bearish tone without overbought or oversold signals. This implies that USDTUAH is not in a state of exhaustion in either direction, and may continue its sideways pattern unless a stronger catalyst emerges.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands remained narrow for most of the day, especially in the overnight session, indicating a contraction in volatility. Price stayed within the 1σ range and moved closer to the lower band as the day progressed, which may suggest a potential for a bounce or a continuation of bearish pressure depending on the next candle’s action.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged briefly during the 8:15–9:30 ET window, with over 2,000 units traded during the 9:45–10:00 ET interval. However, this did not result in a significant price move, hinting at price-volume divergence. The low turnover despite higher volume in certain periods suggests that large traders may have been active without significantly moving the needle.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the most recent 15-minute swing from 42.72 to 42.53, the price tested the 61.8% retracement at 42.64 and bounced slightly before consolidating. This level could serve as a short-term support zone, with a potential retest expected if bullish momentum returns.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price behavior and the alignment of key technical indicators, a potential backtesting strategy could be a range-breakout system based on the 42.64–42.71 range. A long entry could be triggered if price breaks above 42.71 with increased volume, while a short entry might be considered if it breaks below 42.64. Stops could be placed just outside the range, and targets could align with the next Fibonacci extension levels or key support/resistance zones. This system would benefit from a low-volatility setup and could be tested over multiple cycles to assess robustness in different market conditions.