Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) on 2025-11-10

Summary
• Price consolidated between 43.93 and 44.00 over 24 hours.
• Momentum flagged oversold with RSI near 30.
• Volume surged at 19:30 ET amid a bullish breakout attempt.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed, signaling potential for increased volatility.
• No clear reversal pattern emerged despite multiple attempts.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 43.94 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 44.05, a low of 43.93, and closed at 43.95 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET. The total volume was 14,745.0 units, with a notional turnover of 640,455.0 (UAH). Price remained in a tight range, with key levels and momentum indicators shaping short-term dynamics.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours showed a rangebound pattern between 43.93 and 44.05. A brief bullish breakout occurred at 19:30 ET with a high of 44.09 but failed to hold, closing at 43.97. A potential shooting star appeared at 01:45 ET (44.05 close from 43.99 open), suggesting a possible bearish reversal. No strong engulfing patterns emerged, and dojis were absent. The 43.95 level acted as a recurring support, with multiple rejections observed after midday.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged near 43.96–43.97, supporting the current price range. The 50-period MA slightly lagged behind price during the 19:30 ET surge, indicating a temporary bullish momentum that failed to sustain. For daily timeframes, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are aligned in a flat-to-slightly bearish setup, consistent with a lack of directional bias over the 24-hour window.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory after 20:00 ET, signaling a bearish bias and confirming the loss of upward momentum. The RSI reached a low of 28 during the overnight session, marking a potential oversold condition, though price failed to follow through with a reversal. This suggests buyers may still be cautious, and any rally could remain rangebound unless the RSI breaks above 50.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands narrowed between 43.93 and 44.01 from 23:00 to 01:00 ET, suggesting a period of low volatility ahead of a potential breakout. Price moved close to the upper band during the 19:30 ET spike but closed near the middle band. The contraction indicates a possible expansion in volatility over the next 24 hours, with the potential for a breakout or breakdown depending on key level interactions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 19:30 ET with 2,484.0 units traded, the highest in the 24-hour period, coinciding with a bullish attempt. The spike was confirmed by an increase in notional turnover to 109,102.0 (UAH). However, subsequent volume declined, and price failed to follow through, suggesting the move lacked conviction. Divergence between price and volume at the 19:30 ET high hints at a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 19:30 ET swing (43.95 to 44.09), the 38.2% retracement level at 44.02 and 61.8% at 43.97 were both tested. Price found support near 43.97, aligning with the 61.8% level, but failed to break above 44.02. For daily moves, the 61.8% level at 43.95 acted as a strong support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Shooting Star pattern observed at 01:45 ET may serve as a basis for a backtest to determine its predictive power in the USDTUAH pair. A potential strategy would involve entering a short position upon confirmation of the Shooting Star, with a stop-loss above the high of the formation. Historical data would be needed to evaluate how frequently the pattern leads to a sustained bearish move in this pair. Given the rangebound nature of the pair, the effectiveness of the Shooting Star in isolation may vary, and additional indicators (like RSI and Bollinger Bands) could be incorporated for confirmation.