Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) – 2025-11-07

Summary
• Price fluctuated between 43.73 and 44.01 UAH, with a 24-hour closing increase of ~0.40%.
• Momentum showed signs of consolidation as RSI approached mid-range levels.
• High volume spikes confirmed key price levels but no clear divergence seen.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) traded in a 24-hour range of 43.73 to 44.01 UAH, opening at 43.84 and closing near 43.95. Total volume reached 19,705 UAH, and notional turnover amounted to roughly 859,576 UAH (based on weighted average prices). The pair displayed moderate volatility with no definitive breakout attempt.

On the 15-minute chart, price formed a bullish flag pattern after a sharp rally in the early evening. The structure is bounded by resistance at 44.01 and support near 43.87, with a key 20-period MA at 43.92 offering dynamic support. A 50-period MA at 43.94 aligns closely with the 20-period, suggesting a short-term sideways consolidation phase. The 200-period MA at 43.86 could serve as a critical support zone if price dips further.

MACD remained in the positive territory with a narrow histogram, indicating a potential slowdown in bullish momentum. RSI stood at 53, suggesting the pair is not overbought and may continue its consolidation. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction, signaling possible consolidation or a pending breakout. Price action remained within the upper and lower bands, indicating controlled volatility.

Volume distribution showed a clear concentration in the 18:00–22:00 ET window, where volume spiked above 1,000 UAH per candle. Notional turnover also mirrored this volume pattern, confirming price direction without divergence. No significant negative or positive divergences were observed in the 24-hour period.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the key 15-minute swing (43.73–44.01) placed 38.2% at 43.90 and 61.8% at 43.85. Price tested both levels during consolidation. Daily Fibonacci levels for the broader move showed 38.2% at 43.95 and 61.8% at 43.88, with current price near the 38.2% level—possibly indicating a minor consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve a daily RSI(14) signal with an overbought threshold at 70 and an entry on the first close above the level. A Fibonacci 38.2% retracement could serve as a profit target, with a stop-loss below the entry swing low. Position sizing could be based on a fixed risk percentage, say 1% per trade, to manage exposure effectively. Testing this strategy on daily bars from 1 Jan 2022 to 2025-11-07 would provide insights into its robustness under varying volatility and liquidity conditions.