Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) on 2025-10-11

• Price rose to a 24-hour peak of 43.68 before retracing to close near 43.07.
• Volatility expanded significantly following a sharp midday breakout attempt.
• A large bullish engulfing pattern formed in the early morning hours.
• RSI entered overbought territory, signaling potential for a pullback.
• Notional turnover spiked during the midday surge, confirming bullish momentum.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.47 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 43.68, and closed at 43.07 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total volume for the 24-hour period amounted to approximately 410,745.0 Hryvnia, with a notional turnover of roughly 17.6 million Hryvnia.

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a strong push higher in the early afternoon of 2025-10-10, marked by a sharp bullish engulfing pattern and a breakout above key resistance levels. This move was followed by a consolidation phase overnight and into the morning of 2025-10-11, with price testing previous highs before a sharp sell-off commenced around 07:00 ET. This suggests a possible exhaustion of the bullish momentum and a potential reversal could be on the horizon.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels appear to be forming around the 42.80–42.85 range, with price repeatedly testing this area during the afternoon of 2025-10-11. A strong bearish reversal pattern, the dark cloud cover, appeared following a bullish candle near 43.43–43.45, potentially indicating a top is in place. Meanwhile, 43.68 emerged as a clear resistance level during the midday session, with price failing to hold above this level for long.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed to the upside during the bullish surge but have since flattened, with the 50-period MA showing early bearish divergence. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-period moving averages remain bullish, suggesting a longer-term upward bias despite the recent short-term correction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a strong bullish signal during the midday rally, peaking at a high of 0.59, before turning bearish as price reversed. RSI reached 73 during the morning, entering overbought territory, and fell to 52 by the close, suggesting potential for a pullback or consolidation. The divergence between price and RSI during the afternoon sell-off points to weakening momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Band volatility expanded significantly during the midday rally, with price reaching nearly 1.4% above the upper band. By late morning of 2025-10-11, price had collapsed back toward the middle band, suggesting a potential rangebound move ahead. The band width has since stabilized, indicating a possible end to the volatility spike.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday push higher, with one candle showing 20,468 Hryvnia in volume and a high of 43.13. This was followed by a notable increase in volume during the sell-off phase, confirming bearish pressure. Notional turnover also surged during this time, reaching a peak of 17.6 million Hryvnia in total for the day. The lack of divergence between volume and price during the decline suggests strong conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 42.44 to 43.68, key levels at 61.8% (43.17) and 38.2% (42.92) were tested during the consolidation and subsequent decline. Price found support at the 38.2% level before dropping further. On the daily chart, a major 61.8% retracement at 42.85 appears to be holding, which could be a critical level to watch in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-biased trade triggered by a bearish divergence in RSI and a close below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss above the recent high of 43.68. A target of the 42.80 support level aligns with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, offering a defined risk-to-reward profile. This setup would need to be tested over a broader range of similar price environments to confirm robustness.