Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) on 2025-10-09

• Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) traded in a tight range for most of the 24 hours before spiking lower at 4:15 AM ET.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged following a sharp drop of 1.6% after midday ET.
• High volatility from 12:00 AM to 5:00 AM ET suggests increased market uncertainty.
• Volume surged during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• Price remains within a key consolidation range of 41.18–42.25, with potential for a breakout.

The Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) pair opened at 42.16 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 42.25, a low of 41.18, and closed at 42.00 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. The 24-hour volume totaled 164,209.0 Hryvnia, with a notional turnover of approximately $3,913 (based on a 1 USD = 42.00 UAH average). Price action showed a distinct bearish shift in the early hours of the morning as a sharp selloff broke key support levels and led to a consolidation near 41.70.

Structure & Formations

USDTUAH remained in a narrow range of 42.14–42.25 for most of the day, showing no clear directional bias. A bearish reversal pattern formed after the 4:15 AM ET candle, which saw a sharp drop to 41.77 from 42.19, signaling increased bearish control. Key support levels emerged at 41.90 and 41.77, both of which were tested and respected. Resistance remains strong at 42.15 and 42.25, which have held for most of the day.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20 and 50-period moving averages show a bearish crossover late in the morning, aligning with the price break below the 42.00 psychological level. On a daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200 SMA lines remain relatively flat, with price hovering near the 50 SMA, indicating a possible consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed below zero in the early hours of the morning, confirming a bearish shift in momentum. RSI dropped below 30 in the early AM hours, suggesting oversold conditions. However, this did not trigger a rebound, reinforcing bearish sentiment. On the daily chart, RSI is hovering near 50, indicating mixed momentum with no clear overbought or oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 4:15 AM ET to 5:45 AM ET period, with price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band at 41.77. This indicates a breakdown in consolidation and heightened bearish momentum. Price has since rebounded but remains below the midline of the bands, suggesting continued downward bias.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the bearish breakdown from 42.25 to 41.77, with a total of 20,896 Hryvnia traded in that candle alone. This was the highest volume bar of the day, confirming the move lower. Turnover also increased during this period, aligning with the price action. A divergence between volume and price in the later part of the day suggests weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 41.77 to 42.25, the 50% retracement level is at 42.01, which aligns with the current consolidation zone. The 61.8% level is at 42.12, which may offer resistance if price attempts to rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be to enter a short position on a breakdown below 41.90 with a stop above 42.12, targeting 41.60 as a key support level. The 15-minute timeframe would be appropriate for entries following a bearish crossover of the 20 and 50 EMA, confirmed by a bearish MACD and RSI below 40. This strategy would aim to capture the current bearish trend while managing risk through tight stop-loss levels. Given the recent volatility and volume spikes, such a strategy could be effective in capturing a continuation of the downward move.