Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) – 2025-09-21

• • •
• USDTUAH consolidates near 42.63 after morning rally, with volume declining in late ET hours
• 15-minute chart shows bullish engulfing patterns around 42.60–42.65 and bearish divergence in RSI
• Volatility dipped below Bollinger Bands midday but spiked on late-night trades, pushing price to 42.51
• MACD signal line crossed below histogram, suggesting possible bearish momentum ahead
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest 42.65 and 42.56 as potential pivot points for near-term trading

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.60 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 42.67, and closed at 42.57 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. The pair traded within a 42.51–42.67 range, with total volume of 33,265.0 and notional turnover of 1,407,548.75 UAH over 24 hours.

The 15-minute chart reveals a morning push above 42.65, followed by a consolidation phase between 42.60 and 42.64. A bullish engulfing pattern formed between 16:00–16:30 ET on the 15-minute timeframe, suggesting early bearish correction. By late ET hours, bearish momentum intensified with a drop to 42.51 as volume surged on the final candle. Resistance appears to be forming at 42.65, while support appears near 42.56.

MACD turned bearish on 2025-09-21, with the signal line crossing below the histogram. RSI reached 58.2 at midday and declined to 48.7 by the end of the period, indicating potential bearish bias. Bollinger Bands narrowed around 18:30–19:30 ET, followed by a volatility spike as price broke lower.

Fibonacci retracement levels based on the 42.67–42.51 swing suggest 42.65 (38.2%), 42.61 (50%), and 42.56 (61.8%) as key levels to watch. 50-period and 20-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart diverged slightly, signaling short-term indecision.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described strategy is based on a breakout-following framework, using 15-minute candle close above the 20-period EMA as a long entry and below the 20-period EMA as a short entry. Stop-loss is set at the most recent swing high or low, and take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level. The 2025-09-20–21 USDTUAH data shows three potential long entries and two short entries based on this logic. The first long entry (16:15–16:45 ET) led to a 0.13 UAH gain, while the first short entry (08:30–09:00 ET) yielded a 0.05 UAH gain. However, late ET short entries were met with strong volume spikes, suggesting high slippage risk in real-time trading. The strategy appears to work best when combined with MACD divergence and RSI as filters to avoid false breakouts.