Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) on 2025-09-19

• USDTUAH traded in a narrow range early, followed by a sharp drop and consolidation around 42.52.
• A key 42.50 support held, but resistance at 42.55–42.62 appears to limit upward momentum.
• Volume spiked near 42.50–42.54, with a decline in turnover suggesting reduced buying pressure.
• RSI remains neutral, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands show slight contraction, signaling potential for a breakout in the near term.

Market Context and Summary

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.61 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 42.67 and a low of 42.49, closing at 42.52 by 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour volume totaled 90,913.0, with a notional turnover of approximately 3,855,044.6 (based on average price). The asset displayed a choppy and range-bound pattern, with a few short-lived bullish and bearish attempts.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key support zone at 42.50–42.52, which was tested multiple times and held. Resistance levels at 42.55 and 42.62–42.67 were repeatedly approached but not decisively broken. A morning bearish engulfing pattern from 07:00–07:15 ET and a late afternoon bullish pinocchio at 15:45–16:00 ET signaled mixed sentiment. The market appears to be in a consolidation phase, with no clear breakout formation yet.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained closely aligned, indicating no strong directional bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period moving average is above the 100-period and 200-period lines, suggesting a mildly bullish backdrop. However, the price remains below all three, pointing to a potential continuation of consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line and signal line crossed multiple times, showing erratic momentum. While the MACD occasionally pushed above zero, it lacked sustained strength. RSI remained between 50 and 60 throughout most of the session, with minor dips below 50 during consolidation periods. This suggests a lack of strong bearish or bullish momentum, with the market likely to remain range-bound in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened during the afternoon hours, indicating a period of low volatility and possible pre-breakout activity. Price remained within the bands throughout the day, with a few touches near the lower and upper boundaries but without confirmation of a breakout. The contraction phase suggests that a more decisive move could be imminent, either upward or downward.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was most active between 42.50 and 42.55, with a peak of 9,753.0 at the 13:15 ET candle. Turnover followed a similar pattern, with spikes aligning with price consolidations around key support and resistance levels. However, as price approached 42.65–42.67, volume waned, indicating lack of conviction in the rally. A divergence between price and volume may hint at a weakening rally or a strengthening sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 42.49–42.67 move, the 50% retracement level is at 42.58, while the 38.2% level is at 42.55. Price has tested both levels multiple times but failed to break above them. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level near 42.49 held as a key support. This suggests that further downward testing of 42.50 or a breakout above 42.58 may be needed to define the next trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when the price breaks above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and the RSI crosses above 50, with a stop-loss placed below the 20-period moving average. Short positions are initiated when the price closes below the 50-period moving average and RSI dips below 50, with a stop-loss above the 20-period line. This strategy leverages the current market structure and aims to capture directional moves during consolidation breaks. Given the current sideways movement and mixed momentum, this setup could work well over the next few days if a breakout becomes more evident.