Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH): 2025-09-15

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• Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.68 and closed at 42.68, with a 24-hour high of 42.69 and low of 42.51.
• Price action shows a consolidation trend with key support at 42.55 and resistance at 42.63.
• Momentum is mixed, with RSI hovering around 55 and MACD near the zero line, indicating indecision.
• Volatility has expanded mid-day as price retested 42.55, with volume peaking at 3,326 units during the selloff.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 42.58 (38.2%) and 42.53 (61.8%) are critical for near-term direction.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.68 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and closed at 42.68 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 42.69 and a low of 42.51 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 23,726.0 units, and notional turnover amounted to ~1,003,326.00 Hryvnia (calculated using mid-price of ~42.61).

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern on the 15-minute chart suggests a bearish consolidation after a brief rally to 42.69. A significant bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 19:30 ET, followed by a series of small-bodied candles between 42.55 and 42.63. A doji appeared at 42.55 late in the session, hinting at a potential support level. The price has been range-bound between 42.51 and 42.69, indicating a lack of clear directional bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are closely aligned, currently sitting near 42.61–42.62, suggesting a neutral bias. The 50-period MA may act as a temporary resistance ahead of 42.63. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200-day moving averages are not clearly defined due to the limited data, but the trend appears neutral, with no strong bearish or bullish bias emerging.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has remained near the zero line, with a slight bearish divergence forming after the 19:30 ET low. This may signal weakening bullish momentum. The RSI stands at around 55, indicating a balanced market. However, if the price continues to trade below 42.62 for extended periods, the RSI could dip into oversold territory, potentially triggering short-term bounces.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened after the 19:30 ET low, reflecting an increase in volatility. The price has spent much of the session near the lower band, particularly between 42.51 and 42.55. A break above the upper band at ~42.66 may require a significant bullish catalyst, while a retest of the lower band could confirm the short-term bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unevenly distributed, with the most activity concentrated between 19:30 ET and 06:45 ET. A notable volume spike of 3,326.0 units occurred at 11:30 ET, when the price dipped to 42.55. Notional turnover spiked in the same period, confirming the price action. A divergence between volume and price movement after 06:45 ET suggests weakening conviction in the bullish rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 42.51–42.69 swing, key retracement levels to watch are 42.58 (38.2%) and 42.53 (61.8%). The price retested 42.55 multiple times, and a close below 42.53 could trigger a deeper correction. On the upside, a break above 42.63 could test 42.67 as the next target.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when the 15-minute candlestick closes above the 20-period moving average and the RSI crosses back above 50 from below. Conversely, short positions could be triggered when the candle closes below the 20-period MA and RSI drops below 50. Stops are placed at the nearest Fibonacci level, with targets set at the next major psychological or Fibonacci resistance. Given the current neutral to bearish setup, this strategy would likely signal short bias in the near term, with tight stop-loss parameters to manage volatility.