Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) – 2025-09-05

• Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) closed at 42.89 from a 12:00 ET open of 42.84, with a 24-hour high of 42.90 and low of 42.54.
• Price showed a strong bullish bias early in the session, forming a short-lived breakout above 42.90 before retreating.
• A major selloff occurred around 03:30 ET, pulling price down to 42.68 and signaling potential exhaustion in bullish momentum.
• Notable volume surges were observed during the 03:30–04:45 ET period, confirming bearish price action.
• The RSI showed overbought conditions early and moved into neutral territory as the bearish pressure increased.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.84 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of 42.90 before closing the 24-hour period at 42.89. Price swung dramatically after 03:30 ET, dropping to 42.68. The total volume for the period was 54,614.0, and total turnover was approximately 2,324,030.95 UAH.

Structure & Formations

Price exhibited strong bullish momentum early in the session, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows that signaled a short-term bullish bias. A breakout attempt above 42.90 was short-lived and failed to hold. Later, a sharp bearish reversal occurred around 03:30 ET, forming a large bearish candle that gapped down to 42.68. This move suggested potential exhaustion in the bullish narrative and signaled a shift in control to bearish forces. A potential support level appears to be forming around 42.68, while the 42.85–42.90 range may serve as a key resistance cluster in the near term.

Engulfing and Doji Patterns

Several engulfing patterns were observed during the early bearish phase, particularly between 03:30 and 04:45 ET. A long-legged doji formed at 04:45 ET, indicating indecision at the lower end of the price range. This pattern may suggest that a reversal could be in the works if buyers reclaim the 42.85–42.90 range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bullish direction earlier in the day, suggesting a short-term bullish trend. However, the bearish reversal post 03:30 ET caused both moving averages to start diverging and cross in a bearish manner, aligning with the downward price momentum.

On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, reflecting a mildly bullish bias in the medium term. However, the recent selloff has pushed the price closer to the 50-period MA, potentially setting up a key test for the near future.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive early in the session and reached a peak before diverging with price as the bearish move took hold. This divergence suggests potential weakness in the bullish narrative. RSI moved into overbought territory early and quickly retreated into neutral territory, indicating that the market may have corrected its earlier enthusiasm.

The RSI currently sits in the 50–60 range, signaling a balanced market. A retest of the 42.85–42.90 resistance could push RSI back into overbought territory, confirming a bullish reversal or a continuation of the current consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly after the 03:30 ET selloff, pushing price to the lower Bollinger Band. The bands are now wider, indicating a period of higher volatility. Price remains near the lower band, suggesting bearish momentum could persist unless a strong buy wall forms at this level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, particularly in the 03:30–04:45 ET window, confirming the bearish reversal. Turnover also spiked during this period, aligning with the sharp price decline. The volume-to-price divergence in the early part of the session suggests that the initial bullish move may have been artificially supported, with real buying pressure absent.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent swing high of 42.90 and swing low of 42.68 form a strong 2.22% range. Price is currently at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of that swing, which could act as a key support zone. If the price falls below 42.68, the next target may be the 61.8% retracement of the earlier bullish move, around 42.60.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level on the 15-minute chart, particularly if the RSI falls below 40 and MACD turns negative. A stop-loss could be placed above the 42.85–42.90 resistance zone, with a target at 42.60 and 42.54. Given the recent bearish divergence and confirmation from volume, this strategy would aim to capture a continuation of the downward trend, assuming no external catalysts disrupt the current pattern.