Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP)

• Price swung between $3921 and $3993 with a final close near 3966.
• Volatility spiked during the 17:15–17:30 ET timeframe with a 46-peso drop.
• Downtrend consolidation emerged after 20:00 ET, with volume declining to 3500–5000 range.
• RSI entered oversold territory below 30, hinting at potential rebound.
• No strong bullish patterns emerged, but bearish momentum showed signs of fatigue.

Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) opened at 3981 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 3993 before settling at 3966 at 12:00 ET on October 12. The pair traded between 3921 and 3993 over the 24-hour window, with a total volume of 402,038 units and notional turnover of approximately $1.58 billion. The move reflected a volatile downtrend early in the session followed by a consolidation phase.

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish bias during the early hours, marked by a strong decline from 3981 to 3921 between 17:15 and 17:30 ET. This was confirmed by a large bearish candle and a sharp drop in price. A recovery attempt emerged from 22:00 ET onward, with smaller bearish and bullish bars forming a narrow range. Key support was identified near 3960, and resistance appeared at 3984 and 3979. A doji-like formation at 03:45 ET hinted at indecision, while a bullish engulfing pattern at 21:15 ET marked a key short-term recovery.

MACD showed bearish momentum during the first half of the session, with the histogram turning positive after 20:30 ET, reflecting reduced bearish pressure. RSI dipped below 30 during the overnight hours, entering oversold territory and suggesting a potential bounce. Bollinger Bands tightened during consolidation, indicating a potential breakout phase may be near. The mid-Band hovered around 3966–3968, aligning with the final close. Volatility expanded briefly during the 17:15–17:30 ET period before narrowing again.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the high of 3993 to the low of 3921 showed 3966 as the 61.8% retracement level and 3978 as the 38.2% level, offering potential zones for near-term price reaction. Volume activity remained strong during the initial drop but dropped off significantly after 20:00 ET, indicating reduced selling pressure. Price and volume aligned in the 17:15–17:30 ET timeframe, confirming the bearish move, but diverged during the consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when RSI falls below 30 and the price closes above the 20-period moving average, with a stop loss placed 2% below the entry and a take profit at 1.5x the risk. Given the recent RSI oversold condition and the 20-period moving average hovering near 3966, this strategy could have been triggered in the early morning hours of October 12. The consolidation phase and the alignment of the 20SMA with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level suggest that the pair may attempt a short-term bounce from 3960–3966. However, bearish momentum remains intact, and a failure to break above 3978 could signal further consolidation or a resumption of the downtrend.