Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP)

• Price action remained within a narrow range between 3834 and 3842 with no clear directional bias.
• Volume activity surged in the overnight session but has since trended lower, suggesting waning momentum.
• RSI shows no overbought or oversold readings, indicating a consolidation phase.
• Price touched key 3840 level multiple times without breaking through, highlighting resistance strength.
• Bollinger Bands tightened midday, hinting at possible volatility expansion later in the session.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-04, USDTCOP opened at 3840, reaching a high of 3847 and a low of 3826 before closing at 3838 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. Total 24-hour volume was 185,667 units, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 566.7 million COP.

The structure of the 24-hour chart shows USDTCOP trading in a tight range for most of the day, with price bouncing between 3834 and 3842. Resistance at 3840 and support at 3834 were repeatedly tested, but neither level was decisively breached. A few candlestick formations stand out, including a bearish engulfing pattern around 234500 and a bullish harami near 093000, suggesting short-term indecision. A doji appeared at 083000, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are closely aligned, indicating a period of consolidation. The 20-period MA is slightly above the 50-period MA, but both are within a few pips of each other. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are also tightly grouped, with no clear directional bias emerging. This suggests that USDTCOP is in a short-term neutral phase, with no strong trend forming.

MACD and RSI

The MACD histogram remains near the zero line with a small positive bias, suggesting that bullish momentum is weak but slightly ahead of bearish momentum. The signal line has not crossed into a clear trend, and the histogram shows no expansion in either direction. The RSI is currently at 52, indicating that the pair is neither overbought nor oversold. This reinforces the idea of a neutral, ranging market with no strong directional bias.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly during the midday hours, with the price moving closer to the middle band. This tightening suggests a period of low volatility and could be a precursor to a breakout. Price has spent most of the day between the middle and upper bands, with the 3840 level appearing to cap upward movement. A breakout above this level could lead to a test of the upper band at 3847, but this would require a sharp increase in volume and bullish momentum.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked in the overnight hours, particularly around 234500 and 000000, when large-volume candles indicated significant market participation. However, volume has trended downward in the past few hours, coinciding with a narrowing of the price range. Notional turnover also declined, suggesting a reduction in trader activity. Price and turnover appear to be in alignment during the consolidation phase, with no signs of a divergence. However, a sharp increase in volume could signal a breakout attempt.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 3826 to 3847, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels fall at 3835 and 3839, respectively. Price has spent much of the session near these levels, with the 61.8% retracement level acting as a key resistance. The daily swing from 3834 to 3842 shows a similar retracement pattern, with 3836 and 3839 as key levels. These retracement levels may continue to influence price action over the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could involve a breakout strategy triggered by price moving outside of a 20-period Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed just inside the opposite band. Given the recent tightening of the bands and the lack of decisive movement, this strategy would have faced limited opportunities for execution. However, if the market shows increased volatility and a clear break above 3840, the strategy could gain validity. This aligns with the technical indicators discussed, particularly the MACD and RSI, which remain neutral but could support a breakout if the volume increases.