Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP)

• USDTCOP traded lower overnight but surged in the last 24 hours, closing near its high of 3860.
• Momentum picked up in the morning, with RSI showing strength and price breaking above recent resistance.
• Volatility spiked at the 14:45 ET candle, with a large-volume bullish move to 3883.
• Bollinger Bands expanded in the final hours, suggesting a possible continuation of the upward move.

Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) opened at 3845 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3862 at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair hit a high of 3883 and a low of 3830, with a total 24-hour volume of 289,872 and turnover of approximately 1,129,511,840 COP.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV chart reveals a clear bullish reversal pattern in the early morning hours as price retested a key support zone between 3835–3837 and rebounded sharply. A large-volume candle formed at 14:45 ET, with a high of 3883 and a close of 3867, signaling strong buyer pressure. This candle appears to be a bullish "shooting star" variant, with a long upper wick and a strong follow-through in the next session. The 3860–3880 area is forming a new resistance cluster, which may now act as a key pivot for near-term direction.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, USDTCOP closed above the 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA is currently at around 3853, and the 20-period MA is at 3859. Price appears to be in a golden cross phase as the 20 MA crosses above the 50 MA. The RSI is currently at 62, indicating moderate strength without entering overbought territory, and the MACD is positive and rising, suggesting that bullish momentum is still intact.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility spiked during the 14:45–15:00 ET window, with the upper Bollinger Band expanding to 3885 as price pushed upward. Price closed at 3867, above the midline but below the upper band, suggesting potential for further upside. The recent contraction in volatility before the surge could have acted as a signal for a breakout. A continued expansion of the bands would indicate that the upward trend is likely to persist, especially if volume remains elevated.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 14:45 ET candle, with a trade volume of 23,743 units and a notional value of 92,056,100 COP. This coincided with the most significant upward move of the day, reinforcing the bullish signal. The volume distribution supports the idea that buyers are in control, with higher volumes observed in the upper half of the price range in most candles. The total 24-hour turnover was nearly 1.13 billion COP, reflecting strong activity in the pair despite its relatively low market cap.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute move from 3830 to 3883 offers a clear Fibonacci structure for short-term projections. The 38.2% retracement level is at 3857, which aligns with the 50-period MA and was tested but not broken in the following candles. The 61.8% retracement is at 3846, a level that has acted as a support zone multiple times during the session. The current price of 3862 is above both levels, indicating that bulls are maintaining control.

Backtest Hypothesis

The identified short-term bullish setup, supported by a golden cross in the moving averages, a strong RSI, and a breakout above key Fibonacci levels, suggests a potential buy entry strategy at the close of the 14:45 ET candle, with a stop loss placed below 3840 and a target at 3880. A backtest of this strategy over the past three months would involve entering on the confirmation of a bullish engulfing or shooting star pattern following a consolidation phase, with stops and targets aligned with the Fibonacci and moving average levels. The performance would be evaluated based on win rate, average profit per trade, and risk-to-reward ratio.