Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) – 2025-09-19

• Price action formed a descending triangle pattern with key resistance at 3852.0 and support at 3840.0.
• Momentum weakened with RSI below 50 and MACD in negative territory.
• Volatility expanded as price moved 12.0 COP from low to high, with volume peaking near 6,280 units.
• A bullish 61.8% Fibonacci level at 3843.0 may act as short-term support.
• Downtrend appears to consolidate near 3840.0 with possible bearish bias ahead.

The Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) pair opened at 3859.0 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 3861.0, and closed at 3840.0 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, registering a net decline. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 151,635 units, with a notional turnover of 480,716,640 COP. The pair exhibited a bearish bias, forming multiple lower highs and lower lows with a descending pattern.

Structure and formations revealed a clear bearish channel, with price repeatedly failing to break above 3852.0 and finding support at 3840.0. Notable bearish candlestick patterns included a bearish engulfing pattern around 3845.0 and a hanging man at 3852.0. These formations suggest continued selling pressure and limited upside potential. A key resistance zone appears at 3852.0, with potential for bearish continuation if the price remains below this level.

Moving averages indicate a bearish alignment. The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, confirming the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period SMA remained in a bearish formation, suggesting that the medium-term trend favors further declines. A close below the 3840.0 level could signal an acceleration in bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands revealed a moderate expansion in volatility as the price drifted toward the lower band, indicating bearish exhaustion. The RSI closed below 50, showing a loss of upward momentum, while the MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish crossover. Overbought conditions were absent, and the market appears to be in an oversold state, but without strong reversal signals. Divergence was observed between falling price and rising volume near 3840.0, indicating possible bearish confirmation rather than a reversal.

The Fibonacci retracement levels for the recent 15-minute swing show 3843.0 as a 61.8% retracement level, which has served as a key support zone. A failure to hold above this level could trigger a test of the 3840.0 psychological level. On the daily chart, the 3840.0 level coincides with a previous support area, and a break below it may lead to a retest of the 3837.0 level identified during the final 15-minute candle.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on USDTCOP after a bearish engulfing pattern is confirmed near key Fibonacci support levels, such as 3843.0 or 3840.0. Stop-loss levels could be set above the most recent swing high at 3852.0, with take-profit targets aligned with the next Fibonacci level or a fixed risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2. This approach assumes continued bearish momentum and a lack of strong bullish divergences in the coming 24 hours.