Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP): 2025-09-11

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• USDTCOP traded in a tight range with a 15-minute RSI hovering near neutral levels, indicating low short-term momentum.
• Price action displayed a key support at ~3850–3860 and a resistance cluster near 3875–3880 with mixed follow-through.
• Volatility expanded briefly near 3875 before reversing sharply downward, with volume confirming the bearish trend.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed after 22:45 ET on 2025-09-10, signaling potential short-term bearish continuation.
• Bollinger Bands tightened into a narrow range before a late-night breakout attempt, suggesting consolidation ahead of a move.

USDTCOP opened at 3874.0 on 2025-09-10 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 3903.0 before closing at 3861.0 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 3903.0–3850.0, with a total volume of 280,133.0 and a notional turnover of ~1,090,219,732 COP.

The candlestick pattern over the past 24 hours showed a bearish consolidation phase, with USDTCOP fluctuating within a 3850–3880 range. The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover, while the 50-period daily SMA indicated a long-term sideways bias. Price action suggested a potential short-term bearish continuation after a bearish engulfing pattern and a failed attempt to break above 3880.

Structure & Formations

USDTCOP formed several key patterns over the past 24 hours, with the most notable being a bearish engulfing candle at ~3887–3871 and a large doji near 3881–3882 during the early morning hours. The price found strong support near 3850–3860 and resistance near 3875–3880, with multiple failed attempts to break above the 3880 level. The structure suggests that the pair may continue to trade within this range unless a strong breakout or breakdown occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for this pair could involve entering a short trade after a bearish engulfing pattern is confirmed, with a stop-loss above the recent high and a take-profit near the support at 3850–3860. A long trade could be considered on a breakout above 3880 with a stop-loss below 3875. This approach leverages both price action and trend confirmation from moving averages and volume to increase the probability of a favorable outcome.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly around 22:00 ET, indicating a short-term downward bias. The 50-period daily SMA hovered near 3870, with the price oscillating around this level. This suggests that while the short-term trend is bearish, the long-term trend remains neutral to sideways. Traders may look for a cross back above the 50 SMA for bullish momentum or a break below 3850 for bearish continuation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence after 22:00 ET, with the line crossing below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish bias. The RSI remained in neutral territory throughout most of the day, occasionally dipping into oversold territory near 3850. This suggests that while the market is not overbought, a bounce could occur if the RSI dips further. However, without a strong bullish divergence in the MACD, the outlook remains cautiously bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened significantly during the early morning hours, signaling a potential breakout or breakdown. The price eventually moved lower after the bands reached a narrow range, confirming the bearish bias. Price action remained within the lower half of the bands for much of the day, indicating that volatility remains low and directional bias is bearish. Traders may monitor the lower band as a key support level for potential rebounds.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish engulfing pattern and the attempted breakout above 3880, confirming the bearish sentiment. Notional turnover also increased during these periods, suggesting strong selling pressure. However, the volume tailed off as the price moved lower toward 3850–3860, indicating a potential exhaustion of selling pressure in that range. A sharp increase in volume during an upward move could signal a reversal, but for now, the volume supports the bearish case.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing from 3903.0 to 3850.0, the 38.2% level (3878.0) and 61.8% level (3863.0) acted as minor resistance and support, respectively. USDTCOP tested both levels multiple times, with the 61.8% level proving more robust. A break below 3863.0 could target the next Fibonacci level near 3850.0, while a strong rebound above 3878.0 may indicate a continuation of consolidation.

Outlook

USDTCOP appears to be in a consolidation phase with a slight bearish tilt. The key levels of 3850–3860 and 3875–3880 will be critical in the coming 24 hours for determining the next directional move. While the short-term bias is bearish, a failure to break below 3860 could lead to a retracement or even a reversal. Traders should be cautious of divergences in momentum indicators and be prepared for a possible breakout or breakdown scenario.