Market Overview: Tether/Brazilian Real (USDTBRL)

• USDTBRL traded in a tight range most of the day before surging to a 24-hour high of 5.3930.
• Volume spiked after 19:30 ET, confirming a breakout above key resistance near 5.3664.
• RSI reached 60, suggesting moderate momentum but not yet overbought conditions.
• Bollinger Bands widened post-19:30 ET, signaling increased volatility.

The Tether/Brazilian Real (USDTBRL) pair opened at 5.3499 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 5.3995 and a low of 5.3437 during the 24-hour period. The pair closed at 5.3893 on 2025-10-30 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 57,356,133.8 units, with a notional turnover of approximately BRL 312.6 million (using mid-candle averages). The price action saw consolidation into the early evening before a sharp rally driven by increased buying pressure.

Structure on the 15-minute chart revealed a key support level forming near 5.3631, which held multiple times after a short pullback from higher levels. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET as the pair broke above 5.3664 with a strong bullish reversal candle. The resistance level at 5.3732 was tested twice, with the second test resulting in a breakout. The pattern suggests a potential continuation higher. A bearish divergence was observed between price and RSI near 5.3663, though the move above it invalidated this concern.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a positive cross as the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA around 20:00 ET, reinforcing the bullish case. The 50-period MA itself moved up to align with the 5.3663 level. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 5.368, with the 200-period MA at 5.362, suggesting the pair has entered a short-term bullish phase after a period of consolidation.

MACD showed a bullish crossover around 19:30 ET, with the histogram expanding during the breakout. RSI climbed to 60 at the close, indicating moderate momentum without entering overbought territory. Bollinger Bands expanded after 19:30 ET, aligning with the breakout. Price remained above the 20-period MA inside the upper band for much of the latter half of the day. The move above 5.3664 aligned with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous 5.3437–5.3664 range, suggesting strong short-term support-turned-resistance.

The volume profile showed a significant increase after 19:30 ET, with the largest single candle contributing 1.96 million units to turnover. The volume was concentrated in the 19:30–21:45 ET window, confirming the breakout’s validity. Notional turnover during this period was roughly 75% of the daily total. No significant divergence was observed between price and volume, which adds to the bullish case. The final hours saw a tapering in volume, which could indicate exhaustion or consolidation before the next move.

Backtest Hypothesis
The “Bullish Engulfing – 3-Day Hold” strategy, as applied to the USDTBRL pair, leverages a classic candlestick pattern to generate buy signals. The strategy automatically identifies days where the indicator flag is set to 1, indicating the presence of a bullish engulfing pattern. Once triggered, the position is held for exactly three days or until the next close, with no additional stop-loss or take-profit rules. This approach focuses on capturing short-term momentum in the context of breakout patterns. Given the recent bullish engulfing pattern on October 30 at 19:30 ET, the strategy would have entered a long position at that time and would hold through October 31 or November 1. The key technical indicators—MACD, RSI, and Fibonacci—provide a strong backdrop for such a strategy, as they confirm the pattern’s validity and align with the expected momentum continuation. Testing this strategy over a longer historical period could help assess its robustness and adaptability across varying market conditions.