Market Overview: Tether/Brazilian Real (USDTBRL) – 2026-01-04

Summary
• Price opened at 5.4396 and closed at 5.4354 after a 24-hour range between 5.434 and 5.4412.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed after 23:45 ET, signaling potential bearish momentum.
• Volume surged during the 19:15–19:45 ET window, coinciding with a pullback from 5.4412 to 5.4394.
• RSI hovered near 50, indicating neutral momentum, with no clear overbought or oversold signals.
• Bollinger Bands expanded after 19:30 ET as volatility increased ahead of the closing phase.

Tether/Brazilian Real (USDTBRL) opened at 5.4396 on 2026-01-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 5.4412, fell to a low of 5.434, and closed at 5.4354 by 12:00 ET on 2026-01-04. The pair traded on a 24-hour volume of 13,414,842.3 and a turnover of approximately 72.6 million BRL.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed a bearish engulfing pattern after 23:45 ET as price moved from 5.4406 to 5.4394, signaling a reversal in bullish momentum. Support appears to have held around 5.434–5.435, while resistance is now testing 5.437–5.438. A doji formed at 06:45 ET, suggesting indecision as price retested 5.4341 following a sharp drop to 5.4309.

Moving Averages

On the 5-minute chart, the 20-period MA (5.4397) crossed below the 50-period MA (5.4398), forming a potential death cross. On a daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is near 5.4395, and the 200-period MA is close to 5.4394, suggesting a neutral setup ahead.

Momentum & Volatility

The 14-period RSI remained in a mid-range of 48–52 for most of the session, indicating balanced buyer and seller pressure. MACD lines trended slightly negative as bearish momentum increased after 23:30 ET. Bollinger Bands widened during a 19:30–20:15 ET window, coinciding with a sharp 0.0069 drop from 5.4405 to 5.434.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume peaked at 677,612.1 during the 19:15 ET 5-minute interval, coinciding with a drop from 5.4412 to 5.4394. A divergence between price and volume was observed after 03:00 ET, where volume dropped while price continued to trade down. Notional turnover matched this, with 2.7 million BRL traded during that key 5-minute window.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 5.434–5.4412 move, the 38.2% retracement is at 5.4369, while the 61.8% is at 5.4385. Price tested both levels during the 03:00–04:15 ET window but failed to break above 5.4388, suggesting continued bearish bias.

The market may consolidate in the 5.434–5.437 range over the next 24 hours as buyers test the lower end of the channel. However, the risk of a break below 5.434 remains if short-term bearish momentum continues.