Market Overview for Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS)

• The price of USDTARS rose to a high of 1,568.8 before consolidating near 1,559.0.
• A strong morning rally was followed by late afternoon profit-taking and bearish pressure.
• Volume remained moderate, but intraday volatility spiked during the 15-minute pullback.
• RSI and MACD indicate waning bullish momentum, with price hovering near a key 20-period MA.
• A recent breakdown below 1,559.0 may confirm bearish exhaustion and test the 1,553.6 support.

The price of Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1,564.0 on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 1,568.8 before closing at 1,559.0 by 2025-09-21 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was 1,553.6. Total trading volume for the period was approximately 535,082, while the total turnover (notional value) was around 831.37 million.

Price action shows a distinct two-phase move: an early morning rally toward 1,568.8 followed by a pullback to near 1,559.0, with consolidation in the 1,558–1,559 range in the final hours. Notable bearish 15-minute candlestick patterns include a hanging man at 1,564.5 and a bearish engulfing pattern at 1,568.8. These suggest short-term exhaustion on the upside and potential for further downside testing.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels to watch include 1,559.0 and 1,557.6, with 1,553.6 providing a potential floor for short-term bearish action. On the resistance side, 1,564.0 and 1,567.1 acted as minor ceilings for buyers during the morning rally. A breakdown below 1,559.0 could trigger further selling pressure toward 1,553.6 and beyond. The formation of multiple bearish patterns, including bearish engulfing and hanging man, suggests traders are cautious and may anticipate a continuation of the downward trend in the near term.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both point to bearish alignment, with the 20-period MA currently at 1,564.5 and the 50-period MA at 1,563.9. Both are above the current price of 1,559.0, indicating a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 1,566.0 and the 200-period MA at 1,561.5. The current price remains below these averages, suggesting a bearish trend is intact and likely to persist.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below the signal line during the afternoon decline, confirming a bearish turn in momentum. The histogram has turned negative, reflecting a shift in buyer-seller balance toward sellers. RSI stands at 51.0, slightly above neutral but with a downward slope, indicating waning bullish conviction. There is no overbought or oversold signal at this stage, but the RSI divergence between price and momentum suggests traders may expect a deeper pullback toward the 1,553.6 level before any potential bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased as the price broke out of the Bollinger Band's midline during the morning rally, only to fall back into a tighter range in the afternoon. The 20-period Bollinger Bands currently show a contraction in width, suggesting a potential breakout scenario. With the price hovering near the lower band at 1,559.0, a continuation below this level could signal a new bearish phase, possibly extending toward the lower band of 1,553.6.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the morning hours during the rally to 1,568.8, with a peak of 26,052 units, indicating strong participation. However, as the price declined, volume remained moderate, suggesting that bearish selling was not driven by large institutional players. Notional turnover (amount traded) remained stable, with no significant divergence between volume and price. The lack of strong volume during the afternoon drop indicates limited conviction in the bearish move and could point to a potential consolidation or reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the morning high of 1,568.8 and the low of 1,553.6, key levels include 1,565.6 (23.6%), 1,561.8 (38.2%), and 1,558.2 (50%). The price has found temporary support at 1,559.0, just above the 50% retracement level. If the price continues to fall, the next key Fibonacci support would be at 1,557.6 (61.8%), offering a potential short-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

The given backtesting strategy aims to capture short-term directional bias by combining RSI overbought/oversold signals with price behavior near moving averages. During the current 24-hour period, RSI moved out of overbought territory and trended downward, while the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained above the price. A potential strategy could involve shorting on a close below the 50-period MA at 1,563.9, with a stop loss placed above the 1,568.8 high. A target could be set near 1,553.6 using Fibonacci retracement levels. If confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and divergent RSI, this setup could yield a favorable risk-reward ratio. However, the strategy would need to be tested over multiple cycles to confirm its robustness.