Market Overview: Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) - 24-Hour Analysis

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of 1,433.8 before consolidating near 1,420.
• High volatility observed with a 43.9-point intraday range amid mixed momentum.
• Volume spiked during early overnight hours, followed by consolidation.
• RSI shows overbought conditions briefly, but no clear divergence.
• Price remains within a 1,362–1,434 range, with 1,415.5 acting as a key pivot.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-23, USDTARS opened at 1,385.3 and surged to an intraday high of 1,433.8 before retreating. The 24-hour period closed at 1,422.0, with a low of 1,362. The pair experienced total trading volume of 1,463,382 ARS and an estimated notional turnover of 2,077,698,422 ARS. The price action suggests a volatile and mixed sentiment, with no clear directional bias.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a pronounced intraday reversal pattern, with a high of 1,433.8 followed by a pullback to 1,362. Key support levels emerged around 1,391 and 1,363, while 1,415.5 acted as a critical pivot. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed between 03:45 and 04:00 ET, suggesting short-term strength. However, a bearish harami and doji at the 12:45 ET candle indicated indecision and potential reversal pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (1,418.2) crossed above the 50-period MA (1,416.8), signaling a potential short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (1,410.4) is below the 100-period MA (1,407.8) and 200-period MA (1,395.2), suggesting a long-term bearish trend. The price remains below its 200-period MA, reinforcing the idea that long-term bearish sentiment dominates despite short-term volatility.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line (7.1) crossed above the signal line (6.3), indicating short-term bullish momentum, but the histogram shows divergence between the price and momentum. RSI currently at 61.3 suggests mild overbought conditions, with no clear divergence yet observed. However, RSI's inability to maintain above 65 implies weakening bullish momentum and potential for a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

The 20-period Bollinger Bands (15-min chart) show recent expansion with a wide range of 57.8, indicating heightened volatility. At close, the price is trading at the upper band (1,422.0), signaling potential overbought conditions and an increased likelihood of a retracement. The middle band is at 1,413.3, reinforcing the idea that the 1,415.5 pivot is a critical support/resistance level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the overnight hours, particularly between 03:45 and 04:00 ET, as the price surged to its intraday high. This was followed by a sharp decline in volume as the price consolidated. Notional turnover, however, remained relatively steady, indicating that while large price moves were occurring, they were not always accompanied by increased trading volume, suggesting some divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing (1,362 to 1,433.8), key levels are at 38.2% (1,404.9) and 61.8% (1,394.3). These levels have seen notable price reactions, with the 38.2% level acting as resistance and the 61.8% level as support. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement level at 1,380.4 appears to coincide with the 200-period MA, suggesting a potential area for a deeper pullback if bearish momentum gains strength.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on a combination of RSI divergence and volume confirmation to identify reversal entry points. Applying this to today’s chart, the bearish RSI divergence at 12:45 ET, coupled with a volume contraction, would have signaled a potential short entry. Additionally, the bullish engulfing pattern at 03:45 ET, confirmed by strong volume, would have triggered a long signal. This suggests the strategy could capture both sides of the volatile 24-hour range, depending on the market structure. Integrating this with the current setup, the strategy appears well-aligned with the observed price behavior.