Market Overview: Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-03 12:00 ET

• Price declined from 1553.4 to 1528.4, forming bearish momentum with no clear reversal signs.
• RSI and MACD showed weakening bullish momentum, with RSI nearing oversold levels.
• Volatility expanded during key selloffs, with volume spiking near 150k USD.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff phase, indicating increased market uncertainty.
• Fibonacci levels suggest possible support at 1524.0–1527.5, but break could signal further downside.

24-Hour Price Summary and Context

Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1551.7 on October 2, 2025, hit a high of 1553.4, and closed at 1528.4 by 12:00 ET on October 3. The pair traded within a range of 1523.0–1553.4, with a 24-hour total volume of ~1.74M USD and notional turnover of ~1.31B USD. The price action indicates bearish bias, with sellers dominating in key sessions after 17:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a series of bearish continuation patterns, including a falling wedge and several inside bars, particularly between 19:00 ET and 01:00 ET. A strong bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 20:15 ET, as the pair closed at 1531.0 after an open of 1536.0. The 1530.0–1531.5 zone appears to be a strong area of support, with price testing it multiple times. A potential reversal could emerge if a bullish engulfing or a bullish harami forms near this level, but for now, the bearish trend remains intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a bearish crossover, confirming the downward trend. The price remains below both, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is at 1540.0, and the 200-period MA is at 1545.0, suggesting that a continued drop below 1530.0 could trigger further bearish action.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has been negative for most of the 24-hour window, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The histogram has also been declining, suggesting exhaustion among bears is yet to appear. RSI is currently at 32, nearing oversold territory, but has not triggered a reversal signal. A move above 50 could indicate a potential rebound, but only with volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands have widened over the past 6 hours, signaling increased volatility. The price has spent much of the day near the lower band, indicating bearish pressure. A break above the 1533.5 upper band could trigger a short-term rebound, especially if volume increases.

Volume and Turnover

Volume has spiked during key selloffs, particularly between 19:00 ET and 02:00 ET, with a peak of ~160k USD at 19:00 ET. The volume and price action are aligned, confirming the bearish trend. However, a divergence may emerge if volume decreases while the price continues to fall, which would suggest a potential bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels derived from the recent swing high (1553.4) and low (1523.0) suggest key support levels at 1538.6 (23.6%), 1533.0 (38.2%), and 1527.5 (61.8%). Price is currently consolidating near 1528.4, which aligns with the 61.8% level. A break below this could bring the 50% retracement at 1538.2 into play, or even trigger a retest of the 1523.0 low.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a short bias triggered by a break below the 1527.5 Fibonacci level, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a close below the 20-period MA. A stop-loss could be placed at 1533.5, and a target could be set at 1523.0–1520.0. The strategy would require volume to confirm the break and avoid false signals during low-liquidity hours. This aligns with the observed bearish continuation patterns and the weakening MACD and RSI readings.

Forward Outlook and Risk Consideration

The near-term bias remains bearish, with a likely continuation below 1527.5 unless strong bullish confirmation emerges. A rebound above 1535.0 could signal a reversal, but this would require increasing volume and RSI above 50. Traders should monitor for divergence between price and volume, as well as key Fibonacci and moving average levels. Risk remains on the downside, with potential for further selloff in the absence of a clear reversal signal.