Market Overview for Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) – 2025-09-22

• • •

• USDTARS fell sharply from 1,565.0 to 1,434.0 amid heavy selling pressure, closing near session lows.
• Momentum weakened, with RSI entering oversold territory and volume surging to 1.2M A$ turnover.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the top, signaling potential continuation of downward pressure.
• Volatility expanded as price drifted outside lower Bollinger Band, indicating heightened uncertainty.
• Large-volume sell-offs occurred during 13:45–14:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp 15% drop in price.

Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1,559.6 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and dropped to a low of 1,434.0, closing near session lows at 1,460.9 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw total trading volume of approximately 14.1M units and A$ 20.7M notional turnover, with pronounced selling in the midday hours.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near the session high of 1,568.0, confirming a shift in momentum to the downside. A key support level emerged near 1,540–1,550, where the price briefly found a floor but failed to stabilize. A bearish flag pattern is developing, suggesting continuation of the downward trend if 1,460–1,470 is not retested with strong volume.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA have both turned south, with the 50SMA currently at 1,535.0 and the 20SMA at 1,528.5. The price is trading well below both, indicating bearish control. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is at 1,610.0, the 100DMA at 1,630.0, and the 200DMA at 1,660.0. This suggests a deep bearish divergence from long-term averages.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the last six hours, with a bearish crossover in early ET afternoon. The histogram is shrinking, indicating waning momentum. RSI is currently at 28, indicating oversold conditions, though it is unlikely to trigger a rebound without a volume increase or a strong rejection near 1,460–1,470.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with the upper band near 1,570 and the lower band near 1,450. Price has spent much of the last 12 hours below the lower band, suggesting continued bearish pressure. A retest of the lower band could trigger short-term consolidation, but sustained close above it is unlikely without a reversal in sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged between 13:45–14:30 ET, with nearly half of the total 24-hour volume concentrated in three 15-minute intervals. Notional turnover spiked during this period as well, indicating aggressive selling. Price and turnover are aligned in the bearish direction, suggesting the move is supported by liquidity and not merely a flash crash.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 1,553.7–1,568.0 swing, the 61.8% level is at 1,559.2, which has held as resistance. On the major daily move from 1,568.0 to 1,434.0, the 38.2% retracement is at 1,500.6 and the 61.8% at 1,464.4. Price is currently near 1,464–1,466, suggesting a potential pivot point if volume increases.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering short positions on the 15-minute chart when price closes below the 50SMA with increasing volume and RSI below 30. Stop-loss could be placed at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a target at the 61.8% level. Given the recent volatility and alignment of price action with key indicators, this strategy could be tested for its effectiveness in a high-momentum bearish scenario.