Market Overview for Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary

• TSTUSDT dropped sharply from $0.03053 to $0.01063 mid-cycle but has since retraced to $0.02237, with consolidation in the $0.021–$0.023 range.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum has waned, with RSI hovering near 50 and MACD trending upward.
• Volatility spiked during the selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening; recent price action remains within a tighter range.
• Volume surged during the crash but has declined recently, suggesting waning selling pressure and potential for a rebound.
• Fibonacci retracements from the $0.03053 high show 61.8% at $0.0187, with price currently at ~72% retest, hinting at near-term support.

Market Summary

TSTUSDT opened at $0.02929 at 12:00 ET – 1, reached a high of $0.03053, and a low of $0.00146 before closing at $0.02237 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume was 899,617,529.10000002, and the notional turnover was $19,760,950.62, based on average price. Price action reflects a dramatic selloff followed by a moderate retracement, with ongoing buyer interest in the $0.021–$0.023 range.

Structure & Formations

The price structure of TSTUSDT over the past 24 hours reveals a sharp bearish breakdown from $0.03053 to $0.01063 in a single 15-minute candle, followed by a gradual retest of key support levels. Notable patterns include a long lower shadow near the $0.0216–$0.0223 range, suggesting a potential floor for short-term buyers. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed during the crash, followed by a bullish harami as price stabilizes in the $0.021–$0.023 range, indicating possible short-term exhaustion in the downward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA show a recent crossover to the bullish side, with price finding support near the 20SMA. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA and 200DMA are still in a bearish configuration, with price trading below both. This suggests a potential short-term reversal on a near-term basis, but the longer-term trend remains bearish. Price action has begun to align with the 20SMA, which may serve as a dynamic support/resistance line in the coming hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned positive and is trending upward, reflecting improving momentum. The histogram has started to narrow, suggesting that the bullish trend may be maturing. RSI is currently in the neutral zone (~50), indicating that neither overbought nor oversold conditions are in place. RSI is showing a slight upward slope, reinforcing the idea of a short-term recovery. A move above 55 could signal growing buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have significantly expanded during the selloff, reflecting high volatility. Price has since compressed into a tighter range between the mid- and lower band, indicating a contraction phase. This may be a precursor to a breakout or continuation. Current price action sits just above the mid-band, suggesting that volatility may be stabilizing, and the market is in a consolidation phase ahead of a potential directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the selloff, with one 15-minute candle alone accounting for over 76 million volume units. However, volume has declined in the past 6 hours, indicating that the selling pressure may be waning. Notional turnover also spiked during the crash but has since declined, with current turnover levels supporting a stabilization phase. No significant price-volume divergence is observed, but buyers appear to be stepping in to absorb selling pressure at current levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the $0.03053 high to the $0.01063 low, the 61.8% Fibonacci level is at $0.0187. Price is currently near the ~72% retracement level at $0.0217, suggesting it is slightly above this key support zone. The 50% retracement at $0.0206 has also held firm in the past 6 hours. A move above $0.0235 would confirm a short-term bullish breakout, while a close below $0.0215 could trigger further consolidation or a test of the 61.8% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering long positions when price breaks above the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover and a RSI above 50. A stop-loss is placed below the recent swing low, and the target is set at the next Fibonacci level above the entry. Historical data from the past 24 hours shows that this setup may have triggered a buy signal near $0.0216, with a stop-loss around $0.0206 and a target at $0.0235. This approach may capture short-term momentum without overexposure to the bearish trend, provided it holds above key support.