Market Overview for Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) dropped from 0.04159 to 0.0323, with bearish momentum accelerating late in the session.
• Price formed multiple bearish engulfing patterns and confirmed 0.0398 as a key resistance-turned-support breakdown level.
• MACD and RSI showed divergence early in the session, but bearish momentum later aligned with price.
• Volatility expanded significantly post 22:30 ET as price fell through 0.0390 and 0.0380.
• Turnover surged at 22:15 ET with a large spike in volume and price decline.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09, Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) opened at 0.03941, reached a high of 0.04159, and closed at 0.0323 after a 24-hour period that saw it trade as low as 0.03201. Total volume was 167,957,551.59, and turnover amounted to approximately $5,347,355 (based on average price). The session was marked by a sharp bearish reversal from midday through the early evening hours.

Structure & Formations

The price action featured a clear breakdown from the 0.0398 level, which had previously acted as support and resistance. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at 22:15 ET as price dropped from 0.04125 to 0.04059, setting the tone for the bearish leg. Later, a series of small-bodied candles between 0.0398 and 0.0390 confirmed bearish conviction. A doji formed near 0.03406 at 14:45 ET, signaling exhaustion in the bearish move, though it failed to reverse the trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key support levels during the late afternoon decline, confirming the bearish shift. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) were already bearish and aligned with the 15-minute signals, reinforcing the continuation of downward pressure. Price remained below all three daily averages for the duration of the session.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a sharp bearish divergence early in the session, with bearish momentum intensifying after 22:15 ET. The RSI moved into oversold territory at 14:45 ET, but the move failed to reverse the downtrend, suggesting bearish exhaustion rather than a reversal. Both indicators aligned with the price action late in the session, validating the continuation of the decline.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the bearish leg between 22:15 and 23:45 ET, with price breaking below the lower band at 0.0390 and then again at 0.0380. The lower band acted as dynamic support-turned-resistance as price continued to fall through key levels. The bands remained wide throughout the latter half of the session, indicating heightened uncertainty and bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

The most notable volume spike occurred at 22:15 ET with a turnover of over $51,000, corresponding to a sharp price drop from 0.04125 to 0.04059. This was followed by a more moderate but consistent bearish volume flow as price continued to fall. A divergence between volume and price was observed in the final two hours, where volume decreased but price continued lower, indicating a potential stall in bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 0.04159 to 0.0323, the 61.8% level is at 0.0361, and the 38.2% at 0.0388. Price broke through 0.0390 without retracing to either level, suggesting strong bearish conviction. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from a prior bull move may provide potential support at 0.0328 if the decline continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves entering a short position when price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the 20-period moving average simultaneously, with a stop-loss above the 50-period moving average. This aligns with the observed bearish signals from the 22:15 ET candle, where both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key support, and the 61.8% level was breached. If implemented during the session, the strategy would have triggered a short at 0.04059 with a stop above 0.0410, offering a favorable risk-reward profile. Given the subsequent drop to 0.0323, this setup would have yielded a high probability trade during a period of strong bearish momentum.