Market Overview for Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) on 2025-09-19

• Price action shows a distinct bearish trend over 24 hours.
• RSI and MACD confirm weakening momentum with oversold conditions.
• Volume spikes align with price breakdowns, suggesting strong bear pressure.
• Bollinger Bands tighten before a sharp downward move, signaling high volatility.

24-Hour Summary

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-19, Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) opened at 0.05259 and closed at 0.04412 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19, with a high of 0.05645 and a low of 0.04400. Total traded volume reached 214,531,488.95, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $9,463,935 (based on average price of ~$0.0441). The pair experienced a sharp bearish move, particularly in the 18:00–21:00 ET timeframe.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours formed a clear bearish structure, marked by a strong breakdown from key resistance levels around 0.0530–0.0560. The most notable candlestick pattern was a bearish engulfing pattern around 17:45–18:15 ET, where price rejected previous bullish momentum and accelerated downward. A gravestone doji emerged near the low at 0.0440, indicating potential short-term exhaustion in the downward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-period (0.0465) and 50-period (0.0475) moving averages, confirming bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, while the 50-period MA remains above current price, the 100-period MA (0.0480) and 200-period MA (0.0490) suggest deeper support could be found at 0.0465–0.0470 if the trend reverses.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative sharply after 17:45 ET, with the histogram showing bearish divergence. RSI dropped below 30, entering oversold territory, but failed to trigger a meaningful bounce, indicating potential for further downward momentum. The RSI bottomed around 27 at 15:00–16:00 ET, yet price continued to fall, suggesting weak bearish exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 17:00 and 18:30 ET as price broke below the lower Bollinger Band. The band width increased by ~30%, reflecting heightened fear in the market. Price has since remained below the 20-period moving average and within the lower half of the bands, indicating bearish control and low bullish conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 17:00–20:00 ET window, coinciding with the sharp price drop. The highest volume was recorded at 18:15 ET with 17.6 million contracts traded, while notional turnover reached $863,935. This volume was not confirmed by a bullish rebound, suggesting aggressive selling pressure rather than accumulation. A divergence between rising volume and falling price suggests potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price has retraced to ~50–61.8% of the 0.0520–0.05645 swing high, currently testing 0.0483–0.0466 as potential support. On the daily chart, a larger bearish leg from 0.0565 to 0.0440 implies a 38.2% retrace to 0.0479 and 61.8% to 0.0534. A close above 0.0470 would signal a potential shift in momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve shorting on a break below a 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing or a doji) and RSI below 30. Stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance (0.0460–0.0465), while a take-profit would aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci level (~0.0440–0.0435). This setup would capitalize on the bearish momentum observed in the last 24 hours and leverage the current oversold RSI and divergent volume patterns for high-probability short entries.